Credulous Coaching Confabulations: UNLV

I should note that in other coaching news, it seems a given that Western Kentucky will announce that Paul Petrino, the brother of Bobby Petrino, will be hired. It sounds like a good fit if he's schooled in the Petrino offense, but with this news, I'm probably not going to do a segment on WKU's opening.




The Situation: UNLV's a strange place. Seriously, who wouldn't want to coach there? Who wouldn't want to play there? Why is it so hard to recruit there? The U.S. Southwest and specifically Las Vegas are really beautiful places. So why the struggle? This picture identifies the issue. The bottom line was that Sanford wasn't able to get any juice into the program.

The Reasons for "Resigning"/Firing: Sanford struggled overall, specifically in the Mountain West. He was 7-32 in conference play which isn't going to cut it over a 5 year span. UNLV had consistently ranked near the bottom in many offensive categories which was supposedly Sanford's specialty coming from Utah. This year, expectations were high coming off a season where the Rebels were one win away from a bowl berth, but they are now 4-7 and rank 82nd in total offense.

The Swan Song: "Float On" - Modest Mouse

This song probably fits. Modest Mouse always has a hint of optimism to every one of their songs, but this happens to be the most famous so I'll use it. "All right already, we'll all float on/No, don't you worry, we'll all float on". This describes Sanford's situation pretty well considering odds are he'll easily get a coordinator job somewhere in the college game. Maybe he can tag along with Urban Meyer and find a position at Florida.


The Prime Candidate: Dennis Franchione

Rumors have come out of the Las Vegas media that Franchione happens to be the highest candidate on the list. He has Mountain West experience (technically WAC experience) during his stay and turn around project for the New Mexico Lobos.

Because of his experience and ties to the Southwest (including obviously TCU and Texas A&M), he seems like the best fit available. There's something wrong institutionally at A&M because nobody since Slocum has been capable of winning there, even with a coach as good as Fran. Having been out of the game since the end of 2007, he sounds like he could be getting bored of announcing for ESPN Radio.



The Dark Horses: Dirk Koetter and Nick Holt

Koetter was mentioned in the recent report, and he could wind up being a solid fit for UNLV. He's got a lot of things going for him: NFL assistant experience, major success at a non-BCS school, and a head coaching stint in a BCS conference. It's safe to say that Koetter has seen it all.

The current offensive coordinator for the Jacksonville Jaguars is overseeing a pretty solid attack, but of course as always in a league that's usually about who has the best players, you could attribute that to guys like Sims-Walker and Jones-Drew for the Jags. If I had to make a strong case for Koetter, it would definitely be his record at Boise State. The Bronco program was actually kind of plodding along and the roll that they have gotten to can certainly be credited to Koetter bringing in the right people.


This could end up being the most interesting hire out of all these guys. Nick Holt has gotten a lot of love for his work with USC's and Washington's defense. Washington doesn't have a lot of talent right now, so I'm not going to blame him. Even the fact that Holt's aggressive style of blitzing and coaching have gotten the Huskies to be respectable is good enough in my eyes.

Easily one drawback you could point to is the fact that he's already tried his hand at being a head coach. He was definitely off of the radar, but the position of USC Defensive Coordinator apparently outweighed being the head coach of Idaho, and I guess at the time it was the right career decision. His overall record with the Vandals was 5-19, so while he has some momentum in coaching circles, this is sort of alarming. Of course, he didn't have the proper time to oversee the entire rebuilding project, so there's a lot we might not know.


The Best Candidate: Bobby Hauck

Actually, I firmly believe that the best hire UNLV could possibly make is Dennis Franchione. But since he's already been listed, let's go with somebody else: Bobby Hauck. He may not appear to be all that attractive after his little spat with the Montana media, but he has head coaching wins on his side.

His name was also mentioned and while I normally like to think outside of the box on the "The Best Candidate" parts of these posts, Hauck needs to step up to the FBS. With some experience learning under Rick Neuheisel, he's managed to record a 76-16 mark during his time with the Grizzlies. Unfortunately, Hauck hasn't gotten his team to the point where they have won a national title, but he did get them to the title game twice in that span between 2003 to the present. Speaking of Montana, they are currently undefeated under Hauck's leadership. This year they are a lot weaker on defense than usual, but Hauck is a defense-first coach and UNLV sorely needs somebody who preaches defensive toughness.

Game Previews: 11/20

When: 5:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Can Bowling Green continue its run towards a bowl game? They need to win out in order to do so, but sitting at 5-5, there's a good shot they get an at-large bid with a 7-5 record. Knocking off the Zips will go a long way in that quest.

Akron Will Win Because...: Can Akron get the running game going? The leader of this group is Joe Tuzze with 244 yards rushing on the year. They plug pieces in and out, but that's still really bad. Bowling Green ranks 108th in the nation. Something will overpower another and J.D. Brookhart hopes it is his rushing attack.

Bowling Green Will Win Because...: Akron is relatively strong in their secondary. Teams have chosen to run the ball down the Zips' collective throat more times than not, but I don't expect Bowling Green to try that due to their newfounded offensive strategy.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Tyler Sheehan. WR Freddie Barnes gets a lot of deserved credit, but oftentimes Sheehan gets overlooked. Sheehan currently ranks 4th in the nation in total offense per game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: If this were at Akron's new stadium, I'd give them more of a shot. If Temple's slaughter of the hapless Zips were any indication, Bowling Green should do some similar damage. Since it's the MAC (and it's my conference so I admit this), it'll be a sloppy headscratcher for the first half, but Bowling Green's offense will get rolling in the 3rd quarter. Falcons take it, 41-17.



When: 7:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: This is a tough one, but you should care because both teams are absolutely reeling. This game is a classic case of "somebody has to win." Toledo is sitting at 4-6 with all realistic hopes of a bowl game being shot due to their current three game losing streak and Eastern was done after Week 1.

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: Eastern ranks highly in pass defense, but their pass efficiency defense is horrid. The reason being teams decide to run the football first and foremost. This is hardly a case for Eastern to win this game, but I'd like to see you try!

Toledo Will Win Because...: Offense. The Rockets may have tanked defensively, but there's no reason they can't light up Eastern's defense in the process. They are much more talented on this side of the football compared to the Eagles.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Aaron Opelt. Is he even going to play? Odds are. I've seen him listed as questionable, but if he gets in the game with his rotator cuff injury and plays poorly, Eastern might be spared the wrath of getting blown out.

And the Crystal Ball Says: It won't matter much about Toledo's QB situation. While Opelt hasn't been the same since attempting to come back, it's DaJuane Collins who should have the big game. Eastern's rush defense is beyond horrible, so look for the Rockets to easily get to 40+ point. Toledo wins, 46-21.



When: 9:30 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Let's get one more close examination of Boise State on national TV. The Broncos still have that it'd-be-more-interesting-if-it-were-in-Reno game against Nevada, but this game has the potential to sway a couple voters, right?

Boise State Will Win Because...: It's all about the style points. Boise State has the ability to absolutely smash some teams in the mouth. While Idaho racked up more than 500 yards, it was partly due to backups and a ton of possessions due to the productivity of their offense. Utah State's having a difficult time defensively giving up on average 435 yards per game.

Utah State Will Win Because...: It's away from Boise, where the Broncos always seem to be that much more beatable. The defense seems to have given up or something. I realize why Idaho put over 500 yards of offense on the board, but the starters weren't that effective against Louisiana Tech either where, you guessed it, the Broncos left the comfy confines of Idaho.

Keep an Eye on...: RB Robert Turbin. Usually I give this nod to Turbin whenever I preview the Aggies, but he's one superstar I haven't had the joy of watching for an extended period of time. USU has been on ESPN360 a couple times and that's been about it. If he can get going against Boise, Utah State will hang in there....Somewhat.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Boise State. Big. But it still won't keep Utah State's offense at bay, raising still some more eyebrows around the country and having the punditry ponder whether or not this is a team that should take a BCS bid away from Iowa or Oklahoma State. With that said, Gary Andersen's defense has no prayer of keeping Kellen Moore & Co. at bay, so Boise State will take it, 51-31.

I Walk the Lines: Week 12

Nice, 5-2 last week. Overall, that puts the record for SSO at 36-27. As usual, the lines come from CFP via VegasInsider.com.


Penn Sate -3.5 at Michigan State - Call me skeptical, but Penn State has only three victories over teams with winning records not including Eastern Illinois. Michigan State may catch them sleeping for all I know, but still, this is Penn State. The Nittany Lions have dominated most of their average competition on the year. Michigan State on the other hand has struggled to put away some of the better teams on their schedule this season. I think MSU, even though they had some success offensively, will struggle a bit to move the ball against Bradley's defense. Go with Penn State to win by more than FG, but it'll be somewhat close.


Ohio State -13 at Michigan - There's something to be said for home teams who are larger-than-usual underdogs, but this is the Big 10 champion versus another team that is 1-6 in conference play. The only thing keeping this group from suffering a 7 game losing streak to close out the year is a game against Delaware State (which shouldn't have happened anyway since the Hornets forfeit a conference game to schedule Michigan I believe). Anyway, the Buckeyes should blast the Wolverines for yet another time in this historical series. The Buckeyes have really gotten into a groove offensively which is a really good thing for their Rose Bowl prospects. I'd expect that to continue against a Michigan defense that ranks 89th in total defense and surrenders 400 yards per game. Ohio State should win this by closer to 20 and by 14 at the least, so go with the Buckeyes -13.


Memphis at Houston -23 - This seems like a slam dunk to me. Houston's offense is rolling so well right now that you'd be a little confused by this 23 point spread. Memphis has recently fired their coach Tommy West and got manhandled by UAB (although they did make it look respectable on paper). Regardless, Houston, even coming off an upset loss to UCF, is no UAB. Case Keenum is operating an offense that averages about 560 yards per game as the Tigers' D is currently allowing 33 points a game on average. I look for Houston to win this really big even with their holes on defense. They just seem to be a different team at home, so go with Houston -23.


UConn at Notre Dame -7.5 - With all of the off-field drama swirling around Charlie Weis, this one is tough. Connecticut is still projected by some to go bowling (aherm, CFN, cough) which really doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless they can upset Notre Dame in this game. The Golden Domers still have an offense that should pick on UConn's vulnerable secondary. It's really strange seeing the Huskies struggle in this area as much as they have been doing. Clausen-to-Tate will be a soundbyte on repeat for NBC's broadcast, so I think Notre Dame will win this game by about 10 points. Take Notre Dame -7.5.


Louisiana Tech at Fresno State -11 - There might be something to the fact that Ruston is the third most difficult venue in the WAC to play at outside of Bronco Stadium and then Aloha Stadium due to travel. Teams don't like having to go from the far West all the way to Louisiana, understandably so. However, the opposite is also true for La Tech who is winless on the road. Fresno State just got ripped up defensively by Nevada, but seriously, who hasn't? I think Pat Hill's bunch is fine right now led by the legs of Ryan Matthews. There are obviously some defensive deficiencies right now for the Bulldog D, but Louisiana Tech's anemic offense shouldn't have too much success in Fresno. Bulldogs should dominate this game and win by double-digits, so I'd go with Fresno -11 here.


Air Force at BYU -7.5 - This is a close one. BYU has been on fire sans the Florida State and TCU games. There's something about this group that dominates lesser competition. Only problem here is that Air Force is not lesser competition. The Falcons have had their four losses this year come by an average of 4.75 points per game. Three of these happened on the road (Minnesota, Utah, and Navy) while their home date against TCU was the closest any team has gotten to knocking off the Horned Frogs. BYU may have been able to put up 52 on Wyoming two weeks ago, but last week on the road they only managed a 5 point win over winless New Mexico. It helps that Air Force, unlike past years, has a legitimately cohesive and talented defense that matches up well against the Cougars' 12th ranked passing offense. If Air Force loses, which they probably will, it'll be close. Take Air Force and the points in this game.


Vanderbilt at Tennessee -18 - 18 points? That's kind of generous after the shelling the Volunteers received at the hands of Ole Miss. I've been saying this time and time again, but Tennessee just isn't that great of a team right now. Plus they were distracted by the off-field incident involving a pellet gun via some of their freshman. I've always felt that Tennessee looks good statistically, especially on offense, due to blowing out Western Kentucky, Georgia, and Memphis. If you're going to take those outliers into consideration, then Jonathan Crompton is really nothing to fear at all. The Commodores are in the midst of a 7 game losing streak, sure, but they also have the 7th ranked passing defense in the nation. This is a rivalry game and Vandy managed to keep it close against Kentucky. They also had "only" a 24 point loss at Florida and a 4 point defeat at South Carolina. My point is the Georgia Tech game aside, they have been playing better defensively which should even this out a little. Look for the Vols to win by closer to 14, so I'd actually go with Vanderbilt here +18.

Game Preview: Colorado vs. Oklahoma State

When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: Really? Do we have to for a Thursday nighter? I don't even know if I'm going to watch this game as it should be boring as hell and a blowout to boot.

Colorado Will Win Because...: I don't even feel like making a case for Colorado, but here goes nuthin'. They might be able to throw the ball.....?? They might be able to get some sacks....?? Probably not. I can't even do it this team is so mediocre.

Oklahoma State Will Win Because...: It's not that Colorado is horrible on a national scale, just that they can't win this game in Stillwater. Oklahoma State has one of the best offensive lines in the nation and should easily use that to their advantage. They currently rank 3rd in the nation in sacks allowed.

Keep an Eye on...: Oklahoma State RB Keith Toston. 100+ yard day with at least one touchdown. Mark it down.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Ugh. If there's one instance I would prefer to actually watch an NFL game over a college one, it would be tonight. This game is so lackluster that I am apathetic about it with a passion, if that makes any sense. Don't tune in if you're not a fan of these two teams or the Big 12 at large. Oklahoma State wins 40-13.

Game Previews: UB vs. Miami, CMU vs. BSU

When: 6:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: This game is totally irrelevant in terms of the MAC title or bowl chases, but this could be a launching pad for 2010 to each program. Miami OH has shown some interesting flashes of competitiveness pretty much out of nowhere. Buffalo on the other hand, once the team gets healthy and experienced, should find themselves in the thick of next year's championship run.

Buffalo Will Win Because...: The insertion of Zac Dysert into the offense is a good thing for the Redhawks, but it doesn't mean they have found out how to hold onto the ball. They currently rank 120th in the game, which means they are averaging a -2 turnover ratio per game! That is astoundingly bad. Plus, Buffalo has actually had a really good year offensively as they round to to approximately 413 yards of production per game.

Miami OH Will Win Because...: Being home helps. Not to mention that the Bulls are currently on a three-game losing streak via three straight heartbreakers. It's possible this team could feel defeated.

Keep an Eye on...: WR/R Naaman Roosevelt. Roosevelt has been the star of the Buffalo program for about the last three years. Miami OH doesn't have the defensive athletes to keep him in check for too long.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Buffalo should take care of business in this game. However, it's mostly going to come down to want-to. The Bulls need to show an effort because if they don't, Miami OH will catch them napping. I think it'll be pretty even, but UB wins it, 35-27.



When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: Is it possible for Ball State to reclaim some of that 2008 magic? I know it seems like forever ago, but Ball State did knock off CMU in Mt. Pleasant that pretty much gave the Cards a MAC West championship. CMU will probably take advantage of the revenge factor and beat Ball State into a pulp, but this is a defining game concerning where Stan Parrish is going to take this program.

Central Michigan Will Win Because...: Dan....LeFevour. As if there was any doubt, CMU is rolling on offense. The difference between this team and ones from the past is definitely the defense. This helped CMU be competitive against Arizona (giving up 19 points looks pretty impressive now) and upset Michigan State. Ball State's middling offense isn't going to do a lot of damage.

Ball State Will Win Because...: I'm going to repeat myself here, but the mid-week games on national TV are big deals around MAC campi (is that the right plural for campus?). Don't underestimate how fired up Ball State could be to throw a monkey wrench in the MAC race and ruin CMU's season (it wouldn't really do much damage considering the showdown between Central and NIU will be for all the marbles anyway, but still).

Keep an Eye on...: WR/KR Antonio Brown. I'm in the mood for return guys today. Brown is great in that regard, but his real effectiveness comes from playing wideout. He currently has better stats than Anderson; the reason being the double teams that Anderson commands and how Central plans on getting Brown the ball.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is going to be a beatdown. In the MAC and seemingly C-USA, you can have these come-from-nowhere competitive games that make no sense at all, but this isn't going to be one of those instances. CMU will be given a game for a half, but Ball State will get torn up on defense before too long. Central wins this in the second half, 46-20.

Credulous Coaching Confabulations: Memphis

Welcome to the first edition of 2009's "Credulous Coaching Confabulations"! Well, what does that mean, exactly? "Credulous" means willing to believe something without a whole lot of reason to or evidence. "Confabulation" means to converse informally. So, in short, these are informal analyses about coaching situations that has little or no evidence to back up the claims of what candidate could go where outside a couple reported rumors. I'm usually wrong, but did call a couple in 2007 with Paul Johnson listed as the "prime candidate" for Georgia Tech, Paul Wulff as a "dark horse" for Washington State, Art Briles as a "dark horse" for Baylor, and that was about it.

In other coaching news, Dave Elson was fired from Western Kentucky. This story kind of went under the radar, but then again, everything Western Kentucky does is under the radar. UNLV also canned Sanford which everybody saw coming. We'll get confabulating credulously on those job openings soon.



The Situation: An impassioned plea from a head coach to get better commitment to the football program. I'm sure everyone would like their coach to do that....While they're employed. Tommy West actually put Memphis football on the map or at least the fringe college football fan's radar, but that wasn't good enough. Something reeks of alienating West as the scapegoat from Memphis under the guise of expectations.

The Reasons for "Resigning"/Firing: You're familiar with the story by now: Tommy West had five losing seasons since taking over in 2001 and he threw a fit, but a well-support fit by SSO, on his firing day press conference. But, not often discussed in those "five losing seasons" is the fact that West also led the Tigers to five bowl games. His final record in bowls was 2-3 over that span, but the Memphis administration felt that this is a school that needed C-USA championships and West, either by his own flaws or Memphis', probably wasn't going to deliver anything better than 6 or 7 wins on a consistent basis.

The Swan Song: "The Importance of Being Idle" - Oasis

This song probably fits because that describes Memphis: Idle. This is a program that, much like Clemson while West was there, peaked at 8 regular seasons wins. That's nothing to scoff at entirely, but they were never in contention for a conference title. So in other words, the program was sitting still and not doing anything.


The Prime Candidate: Terry Bowden

He looks a little bit like Dick Morris, doesn't he? Bowden has been anxious to get another shot at Division 1 coaching. Currently, he's overseeing what should wind up being the D2 champions at North Alabama with a roster chalked full of FBS transfers. Auburn fired Bowden (technically he was pushed out the door) over silly reasons. This is a guy that averaged about 9 wins per year before the awful 1999 season which saw Bowden lead the Tigers to a 1-5 record before he "resigned".

Anyway, how would this fit work out at Memphis? He's got obvious Southern ties. That would help out possibly in recruiting, but he's been out of the game for awhile. He tried to interview for the West Virginia and Georgia Tech jobs, so maybe like Dennis Erickson from a few years ago, he'll have to build his reputation up one job at a time before getting another opportunity at a major program. If Memphis can get the right kind of attitude about their football program and give Bowden a couple years, he could get Memphis on the right track.



The Dark Horses: Tommy Tuberville and Larry Porter

How about Tommy Tuberville? One year from getting booted by Auburn, Memphis has expressed interest in another coach with AU ties. Tuberville was dumped after a rebuilding Auburn team missed a bowl game for the first time since 1999, ironically Tuberville's first year coaching for the Tigers. I don't think you could applaud T-Tub's (just cause I'm sick of typing "Tuberville" all the time) job enough with that run of 8 straight bowl games. This just shows you how fickle Auburn has been about this ordeal.

Tuberville has one major drawback: Offense. He came up through the SEC ranks as a defensive guy, but the west coast that Auburn was running got progressively worse every season. It may be time for him to rethink his offensive coaching strategy or maybe employ a spread offense? Something, just don't repeat Auburn's offense. It got ugly after Kenny Irons left in a big way. But, he's 55, he's from the South, and he's used to coaching under pressure. Could be a decent fit.


Now, onto Larry Porter. Who's Larry Porter? He used to be the RB for Memphis from the early to mid 90's and he was darn good at it. He was named in the "sources" recently leaked out to the press, but Porter has some ties. Kind of like Dan Mullen tagging along wherever Urban Meyer goes, Porter went from Oklahoma State to LSU with Les Miles.

The only reason I can think of Porter being listed as as candidate right now is his former ties to Memphis. Currently, he works with LSU's RBs and special teams and has the honorary title of "assistant head coach" (never figure out exactly what the duties of that mean exactly. Is it assistant TO the head coach or just the coach's assistant or what?).


The Best Candidate: Gus Malzahn

I really wanted to go with either Auburn offensive coordinator Malzahn or Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong, but Strong was losing some steam and may be off of Memphis' radar. I think Strong will get a head coaching job within the next two years, maybe to Virginia or Central Florida if O'Leary retires or something. But, onto Malzahn. Is he ready to coach at this level?

I would probably say yes, emphatically. Malzahn has proven time and time again that he is indeed the best offensive mind in college football right now. There's no denying it, I don't think Urban Meyer or Brian Kelly touch Malzahn right now. He employs a no-huddle spread that utilizes glaring efficiency running the football and chucking it around. The defense takes a hit overall from getting gassed due to the number of times they see the field, but in the long run, points are points. Memphis is in C-USA where Malzhan's last stop as Tulsa offensive coordinator had the Golden Hurricane scoring 47 points per game and averaging well over 500 yards of total offense. I think the Tigers could be a launching pad for Malzahn's career as he climbs up the coaching ranks.

Game Preview: ECU vs. Tulsa

When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: Is Tulsa going to a bowl game? This is a question that many of us thought would be inevitable, but this is a team that has suffered close loss after close loss. Whether they suffered tight defeats against Boise State or UTEP or a last second-field goal to Houston, they've been through a lot. ECU is still in a position to compete for the C-USA East championship.

ECU Will Win Because...: The Golden Hurricane are currently in the midst of a 4-game losing streak. Sitting at 4-5, the obvious difference is the absence of Gus Malzahn. This is a team that has seen a drastic 18 point per game dropoff from 2008. ECU's defense should be able to stifle Tulsa's ground game which is the key to success for this offense.

Tulsa Will Win Because...: It's funny, but their defense has come around. It's still mediocre and the production has taken a hit over the last couple weeks, but this is probably the best Tulsa defense in the post-Kragthorpe era. East Carolina has been slugging out victories, but they don't do all that much very well and with the 84th ranked passing defense, Tulsa could squeak out a win at home.

Keep an Eye on...: ECU S Van Eskridge. If ECU is to win, they have to start playing better overall pass defense. Tulsa isn't going to do all that much on the ground, so they'll rely on passing the football to do most of their damage. Eskridge might be one of the most underrated safeties in college football. Let's see if he gets a pick tonight.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I'm really torn on this game, but I think Tulsa's slide will continue. It's sad because this was a team with dark horse BCS aspirations, much like 2008. Odds are that they stop losing, but I just don't see it here. ECU won't wow anybody offensively, but they pound it out with their three-headed monster at RB (although Lindsay is unhealthy). I think they grind out a low-scoring victory and this winds up being the nail in the coffin for Tulsa's bowl hopes (that is, if they don't upset Southern Miss on the road next week). ECU will kick a late FG and withstand a comeback effort to win, 23-21.

Bowl Projections: Week 11

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Wyoming
St. Petersburg Bowl: USF vs. UCF
New Orleans Bowl: Houston vs. Troy
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. USC
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Cal
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. ECU
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee State*
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. Stanford
Music City Bowl: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Independence Bowl: Iowa State vs. Arkansas
EagleBank Bowl: Ohio* vs. Marshall*
Champs Sports Bowl: Northwestern vs. Florida State
Humanitarian Bowl: Idaho vs. Air Force
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. Nebraska
Armed Forces Bowl: SMU vs. UL Monroe*
Sun Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy
Insight Bowl: Minnesota vs. Missouri
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Capital One Bowl: Penn State vs. LSU
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami
Rose Bowl: Oregon State vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Pitt
International Bowl: Rutgers vs. Temple
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Papajohns.com Bowl: West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Liberty Bowl: Southern Miss vs. South Carolina
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
GMAC Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. UAB*
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas

* - at-large or alternate qualifier

You've got to be kidding me. Under this scenario, would Central Michigan seriously play Middle Tennessee again? After winning the MAC? Gaawwwwd. Why can't the Big 10 qualify enough teams and stop sending two to the BCS every year?

Well, let's get into that. I had a big shake up from last week's projections. With Iowa down to 9-2 and more than likely defeating Minnesota next week, the Hawkeyes should end the year at 10-2. Now, this scenario has had Pitt beating Cincy for the last week. Now, here's the question: Would the Fiesta Bowl want 10-2 Iowa or 11-1 Cincinnati? I think the answer to that question would be Iowa. I think they probably have a larger fan base and would capture the interest of Big 10 country who is admittedly larger than Big East country. Unfortunate, but I really hope that Cincinnati doesn't get shafted; at least it would help out the Motor City Bowl get Minnesota or Michigan State (still fuming about that).

Anyway, what else? USC has dropped from the Fiesta Bowl to the Las Vegas Bowl for me. I have a cluster**** of Pac-10 projections. I should lay out what I have happening here: Oregon beats Arizona, Oregon State beats Oregon. Oregon State, Oregon, and Stanford tie for the Pac-10 championship and the Beavers own the head-to-head tiebreaker against all of them. Even if Arizona moves in for a tie, Oregon State would have the tiebreak. It's a little out there I admit, but I do believe that Oregon State is the most underrated team in the nation and that they are on a mission to avenge that drubbing at the hands of the Ducks last season.

Okay, now C-USA. I'm not entirely sold on UAB winning 6. They are currently 5-5, but I think they'll upset Central Florida at home for the final week. And I have to admit, I'm not up-to-date on the at-large selection process. If the GMAC goes first, they should have to take Middle Tennessee if I recall considering the Blue Raiders will finish 7-5 at the worst. They would take precedence over 6-6 teams. I only assorted these due to geographic proximity in terms of what would make the most sense (UL Monroe to Fort Worth, UAB to Mobile). I think an 8-4 MTSU vs. MAC champion Central Michigan would make a better game than it looks on the surface and a more entertaining game than it was in 2006. The C-USA East is crazy right now with UAB, UCF, ECU, and Southern Miss all in contention. I have Southern Miss coming out on top of that scrapheap and SMU will lose their hold on C-USA West with a loss to Marshall next week. Southern Miss plays Houston for the C-USA title and the Golden Eagles win.

I am so unconfident about all of this. If you don't like where your team is, don't worry at all. I'm just as clueless are you are. I have no idea what is going to happen with the at-large situation, the Pac-10, or C-USA.

The Week That Was: Week 11

Hey guys, sorry I missed last week. Try to be better next/this time.

1. Smelling Roses

How does Jim Tressel look now? Sure the Big 10 might be down for all we know, but this is a Buckeye team that has dealt with its fair share of adversity. From the now-seniors and now-juniors watching their team leaders falter in championship games and last year against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, from almost blowing the opener to Navy, losing to USC, or getting beat on the road against Purdue, they have seen it all. And be sure to give Tressel credit for turning things around this quickly.

The game in the Shoe Saturday should go down as a Big 10 classic. These were two good football teams who played with everything on the line. It was a very impressive outing for Vandenberg who will give Iowa something to shoot for in the next three years (well, he might redshirt in 2010 considering Stanzi is a junior). Still, the conservative approach for Tressel worked in what has been an unfashionable year for that strategy. No school in the nation has seen such sustained success. Seriously, name one! Oklahoma doesn't count with rebuilding years in 2005 and 2009. USC has even shown that it has ups and downs after this terrible few-game stretch they've had. I criticized Tressel pretty hard at the start of this year and he's proven me wrong. I wish Ohio State no luck next week against Michigan, but they should represent the Big 10 well this January in Pasadena.


2. Dem 'Orned Frags Can Play!

Didn't really see that coming. I hate to brag considering I suck at preseason predictions so much, but I did have TCU as the team-to-beat from the non-BCS ranks. They have proven so much after a 10-0 start. The game that nobody saw was a smackdown of epic proportion. The stats may appear that Utah moved the football a bit, but TCU was up 35-7 after an interception return for a TD near the start of the second quarter.

Never has Gary Patterson had a group like this with which to work. The QB position had been serviceable since circa 2003 when this ball got rolling, but Dalton is a future stud if he isn't considered one right now. Joseph Turner running the ball is another added element that actually might be an upgrade over Aaron Brown (but to be fair, he was banged up often). The Utes may not be all that and a bag of chips, but they are still a respectable team overall if their performance against Oregon was any indication. And they got their lunch handed to them by a top 5 team. I'll talk about TCU and their title hopes a little later in this post.


3. Fall of Troy? Maybe.

Stanford would make Homer proud, wouldn't he? Actually, I never read the Iliad, so I might be talking out of my ass. I did read the Odyssey though. This is beside the point!

USC is not going away. I hate to break it to you, folks, but Pete Carroll will be back to winning Pac-10 titles by 2010. Actually, they might not win it next year either, so maybe 2011 is the year to shoot for a return to national title contention. This is a really interesting scenario though because you never really felt comfortable admitting that USC is this vulnerable, did you? I couldn't come around to the fact that the BCS lock-in that the Trojans have been over the years would lose three regular season games and a home date against Stanford. Stanford walked all over this group and perhaps the bigger headline to come out of this game, instead of the USC collapse, is the emergence of Stanford. I don't think the Cardinal can become the "new USC" by any stretch of the imagination, but if they can become one of these upper-tier Pac-10 teams that can win a title every three years, Jim Harbaugh has something to be proud of. A program that was so putrid when Harbaugh arrived in 2007 is now in a position to make the Rose Bowl. Wow.


4. Not-So-Golden Domers

You could say that about Notre Dame's helmet. Somebody get a new spray-paint guy whoever is in charge of that or at least order some heavy-duty paint; that's the second week in a row that stuff hasn't held up. Notre Dame's helmets are not supposed to be gray!

Anyway, the 29-22 loss on the road to Pitt was a valiant effort. I'll give it that as a Michigan dude. This isn't a Notre Dame team that is going to quit on their head man, as much of a prick he may come off as being. Jabba the Weis (okay, lame joke) has probably lost a hold of this job though. There's no denying that a 35-25 record over a 5 year span isn't going to cut it at a program that is shooting for the stars. Weis probably isn't a terrible head coach, but he's in the same boat as Willingham and Davie, so if this administration is consistent, they will do away with Weis. However, it was a God-awful idea to sell out and lock up Weis for 150 years after a season's worth of play wasn't even completed. Just stupid on so many levels. You know how in our justice system you can get penalized multiple life sentences? Well, that's sort of what this contract is like. It's time to break the bank and hire Urban Meyer or Brian Kelly (who, trust me, would jump ship at Cincy for the right wage).


5. BCS Thoughts

Okay, here's how our BCS sets up. The teams that are automatically in? There's still stuff to be decided, but I think it's safe to assume that Texas will win the Big 12, the SEC will get two teams in, and TCU will be there. Those are about the only locks at this point in time. The de facto Big East title game will be between Pitt and Cincinnati in early December, but the Big East might squeak two teams in the BCS if Pitt can pull off an upset there. Don't sleep on Clemson as being a BCS-bound football team as I think they probably have a decent job at knocking off Georgia Tech. The Rose Bowl will come down to either Stanford, Oregon, or Oregon State and believe it or not, I think the Beavers actually have the inside track on that race.

The other story surrounding the BCS is whether or not TCU actually has a shot at competing in a BCS championship. I'm really on the fence and 50/50 on this one. First off, you need either Texas to get beat by Kansas, Texas A&M, or most likely Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. The SEC winner would need to lose once, as in Bama getting upset by Auburn then beating Florida or Florida being upset by Florida State and beating Bama in order to have a prayer. Cincinnati's overall resume would probably be better than TCU, but don't underestimate how silly pollsters can be. I'd bet you at least 30% of the coaches in either the Harris or Coach's Poll view Cincy as a "mid-major" and couldn't tell you what conference they play in. I'm being serious. The media has puzzlingly been portraying Cincy as a "BCS buster" when they come from an auto-qualifying conference. Anyway, in short, I think TCU could stay ahead of Cincinnati for the BCS title rankings if Texas loses. I still think the one loss SEC champ gets in ahead of the Frogs.




SSO's Totally Worthless Top 25:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Ohio State
9. Pitt
10. Oregon
11. Penn State
12. LSU
13. Virginia Tech
14. Wisconsin
15. Oklahoma State
16. Clemson
17. Miami
18. Stanford
19. Iowa
20. Oregon State
21. Ole Miss
22. North Carolina
23. USC
24. Nebraska
25. Boston College

Others Receiving Meaningless Consideration: Arizona, Houston, Utah, Northwestern, BYU

Game Balls!

With the D2 playoffs underway, I promised myself I would sneak one under-the-radar performance on here. As it turns out, I wasn't able to with all of the great statlines. Here, we have Danario Alexander who had patiently waited for his turn to be the number one receiver in this offense. Missouri "upset" Kansas State with help from his 200 yards receiving on 10 grabs for 3 TDs.









How about C.J. Spiller of Clemson? I think it may be overdoing it a little bit with the Heisman talk considering all of the other worthy candidates, but C.J. Spiller is definitely making a case. He's been crucial during Clemson's march towards the ACC title game and he finished the NC State matchup on the road with a passing TD, a rushing TD, and a receiving TD. He only had 97 yards rushing, but any time you get the offensive hat trick, that's worth some love.







Gold ball has to go to Dexter McCluster. I remember on the SEC Media Day from 2007 that Ed Orgeron was hopelessly professing his confidence in his "playmakers". Keep in mind, while Eddie-O was at Ole Miss, their offense was pathetic. I rolled my eyes when he mentioned McCluster, then a sophomore. He delievered that year and has been sensational ever since. McCluster was a WR then, but he rushed for 282 yards and four touchdowns against what appeared to be a solid Tennessee defense. Adding insult to injury, let's just tack on 40 yards receiving to that total. Congrats!








The Kool-Aid Alert this week isn't really for Kool-Aid sippers. This is a problem I have with college football that doesn't get a ton of attention: Get on networks where people can see you! Man, alive. This mostly has to do with the Mountain West.

If the number 4 team on the nation thumps the number 16 team in the nation on CBS College Sports, did it really happen? That's a question that a lot of people never was able to answer for themselves, relying tirelessly on ESPN updates. Thankfully, God invented Justin.tv where many could enjoy the game. I get CBS College Sports, but checked the site for my own info as to how many would tune in. Answer? 10,000+. Especially with the latest blow absorbed by Versus, it's past time for the Mountain West to ditch the whole Mtn./Versus/CBS deal they have going on here. Or, at the least, have some type of option that allows them two or three games a year on the actual CBS. That TCU/Utah game was a bit of a mismatch, but it was the marquee conference game of the year. At least allow people who are interested to tune in.



Word of the Week: Temerarious
-adj
reckless; rash

This word would mostly describe some reactions from the college football faithful. I sympathize sometimes when people get upset; it happens, you know. Incompetent coaching, dumb plays, botched calls, etc. Everybody experiences it, but sometimes you just need to relax, take a step back and realize that no, Chicken Little, the sky is not falling. Michigan will be fine and win 8 or 9 games in 2010. USC will be in the BCS in 2010 (maybe not win a Pac-10 title, but they'll win 10 games). All is not lost for Miami as, even though they will miss the BCS this year, should be the ACC's national championship contender that the conference has been waiting for. Nebraska will be in legitimate contention for a Big 12 championship. So all I'm trying to say to fans of major programs who might have hit a bit of bad luck is not to worry for too long.

Game Previews: Week 11

Sacrificial Lambs of the Week (a.k.a., the biggest blowouts)

When: 12:00 PM ET, FSN

Why You Should Care: Will Texas continue their run to the national title unimpeded? It sure looks that way, but Baylor might have something to say about that. Baylor could play this week's Northwestern if all the cards fall right.

Texas Will Win Because...: Defense. Saying that takes some getting used to for a unit that has historically struggled in this decade, especially against the pass. Will Muschamp has transformed the defense into his image with a blitz-happy philosophy that really works. Since they rank 1st in total defense, they should stomp Baylor's offense.

Baylor Will Win Because...: Freshman QB Nick Florence has been on-and-off so far this season, but he's been alright. Alright might be a mild way of putting it after he shelled Missouri for more than 400 yards. Not to mention that was a road victory. Sitting at 4-5, this isn't a bad team with or without Griffin, and having the game in Waco adds to their benefit.

Keep an Eye on...: LB Sergio Kindle. Kindle is second on his team in sacks and tackles, but he's the obvious leader on the defense. If he can bust through against Baylor's poor pass protection, I'd like for Texas' defense to dominate.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Even after putting up 40 points against Missouri, I think Baylor is in for a rude awakening. Texas' defense will rack up sacks and come close to shutting the Bears out after a slow offensive first half. I think the Longhorns should own this game from start to finish by a final score of 41-7.



When: 12:00 PM ET, CBS College Sports (tape delay)

Why You Should Care: Okay Army, let's at least give yourselves a fighting shot at the end of the year. While a three-game losing streak may seem discouraging, they held their own against Temple and Rutgers after getting blown out by Air Force last week. However, they have VMI and North Texas coming up, so if they can pull off an upset against Navy, this is a team that will be bowling at 6-6. Two option academies squaring off! Should be entertaining no matter how ugly this one gets.

VMI Will Win Because...: They're not. Sorry. I know how they say option offenses equalize the talent discrepancy, but that hasn't been the case this year for VMI who has been very bad in Big South play.

Army Will Win Because...: VMI maybe second in the FCS in rushing offense, but they are 80th in scoring offense. The Keydets gave Richmond more of a struggle than they imagined and that has been their highlight of the year. They're also coming off a 54-14 loss last week to Liberty.

Keep an Eye on...: VMI RB Howard Abegesah. You're probably familiar enough with all of the Army main players, so how about one from VMI? Abegesah has had a couple 100+ yard games so if he can reach that, this could be closer than most expect.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Army. Big. 53-7.



When: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Do you have to? Louisiana Tech will be scrapping for their bowl eligibility in this one, but it probably won't matter. It will however be pretty interesting to see what happens with LSU after their tough loss to Alabama last Saturday.

Louisiana Tech Will Win Because...: The injury bug. Charles Scott is toast for the remainder of 2009 and the QB situation is unsettled. Jefferson should play, but he could struggle with that ankle situation.

LSU Will Win Because...: This is easy for their defense. The Tigers are allowing fewer than two touchdowns per game at this rate (13+ points). LSU should take care of an offense that has done next to nothing with the football.

Keep an Eye on...: KR Trindon Holliday. Holliday is listed as as RB and I've never understood why he doesn't get more offensive touches. Either way, the special teams superstar will have a couple big returns in this one.

And the Crystal Ball Says: LSU should handle the Bulldog offense. It hasn't been able to break many big plays on this side of the ball and the Tigers have one of the top units in the nation. This should easily decide the game as LSU takes it, 38-10.

Reba on CW, or.... (a.k.a., the worst televised games)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Yuck. Doug Marrone's project is still under way while Kragthorpe's should be coming to a close this season. This game is huge for Kragthorpe's future as head coach considering the Cards currently don't have a conference win. He could be one upset against USF or Rutgers away from getting one more shot, but if he drops this game, it's over. Officially.

Syracuse Will Win Because...: There still might be some hope for Paulus. The passing game has sputtered recently, but so has Louisville's. The Cards are currently just as bad offensively as the Orange are. Not sure if that's a positive thing or not.

Louisville Will Win Because...: They are praying that there will be a freshman resurgence of some sort. Kragthorpe has gone for broke by tacking his luck on true freshman QB Will Stein and redshirt freshman RB Darius Ashley who ripped off 164 yards against West Virginia last week. The output? 9 points. Hooray.

Keep an Eye on...: Louisville has a mediocre rush defense, so there's a chance Delone Carter could have a nice day. Carter had over 130 yards against Pittsburgh last week. Without Mike Williams, the Orange offense should lean heavily on their senior back.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is probably a dumb thing to do, but heck, I'll take Syracuse. It's a matter of motivation at this point. Last week's game against West Virginia wasn't entirely inspired or anything more than it was West Virginia coming out flat. Syracuse, even with some tough losses over the past few weeks, hasn't tanked yet. I look for them to win the battle of wills, 23-20.



When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: Whenever Minnesota is going to play a team with the word "Dakota" in its name, people will forever remember the 2007 loss to North Dakota State. That was a new level of bad for Tim Brewster, but it was his first year in a major rebuilding project. Things have turned around, but is this a real upset possibility?

South Dakota State Will Win Because...: The Jackrabbits have this going for them: The defense has been terrific. Minnesota, even with Weber operating their spread, has really struggled due to a lack of a running game. They'll get one dimensional and that plays into the strength of SDSU, their pass defense which ranks second nationally in pass efficiency.

Minnesota Will Win Because...: While they are the model of mediocrity that every team doesn't want to be, the Golden Gophers are a mediocre Big 10 team. Lot different from the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Minnesota has been great at returning kickoffs and punts though.

Keep an Eye on...: South Dakota State RB Kyle Minett. Minett has had a fantastic season so far ranking 5th in the FCS in rushing offense. Minett could provide some problems for a Minnesota rush defense that is currently allowing more than 160 yards per game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This should be a game. Will South Dakota State win? No, not really. I think they'll be the ones who show up to play while Minnesota goes through the motions. South Dakota State might lead after a quarter, but over the course of the game, I expect them to wear down. Minnesota will win a tough battle, 32-21.



When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan/SEC Network

Why You Should Care: Is this another upset possibility in a late-season OOC matchup? Maybe. I don't know if I'd put the Razorbacks on upset alert, but this has the potential to be an entertaining game with the way the Trojans have performed on offense recently.

Troy Will Win Because...: Offense and momentum. Since Troy was upset at Bowling Green and got drilled by Florida, the team has been on a roll. They've ripped through everything in their path with a seven game winning streak. Levi Brown has been on fire and currently ranks 5th in total offense per game in the FBS.

Arkansas Will Win Because...: As you always have to talk about when it comes to Troy, their defense has a couple NFL draftees-waiting-to-happen scattered throughout the starting 11. But this is a group that has underperfomed. That should be a good thing for an Arkansas offense that has lit up some of the lesser defenses on their schedule. Only Alabama and Ole Miss have held the Hogs to fewer than 20 points this season.

Keep an Eye on...: Troy QB Levi Brown. He should be able to hook up with Jerrel Jernigan on a couple deep routes. Arkansas hasn't really improved that much in the secondary, so they're vulnerable.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Can you say, shootout? Only difference is that Arkansas has more talent on offense and defense. I look for the Razorbacks to have their way with Troy's underachieving defensive group while at the same time allowing a bunch of points in the process. Troy will play well, but fall in the end by a final of 51-34.

These Guys Gotta Prove Something (a.k.a., teams with something to prove)

When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Is Florida State going to miss a bowl game in this year full of Bobby Bowden bashing? Even though they are currently 4-5, they have Florida looming in the season finale. So these next two games against Wake and Maryland are must wins. The Deacons are 4-6 and on life support as well.

Florida State Will Win Because...: Even without Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel could turn out to be a special athlete. Unfortunately, the redshirt freshman has only thrown 4 passes all season long. There's reason to be worried for sure, but Wake has lost four straight games.

Wake Forest Will Win Because...: Jim Grobe always has these guys playing steady football. Sure they've dropped four straight, but their last three games have been decided by 3 points or fewer, and last week's went down to overtime. They look like a good team stricken with poor luck. Riley Skinner should have a good day at home against FSU's pass defense.

Keep an Eye on...: LB Dekoda Watson. Watson leads the team in sacks which isn't a really good thing overall for the team. But, their defensive leader is turning in a decent season and should get into the backfield against Wake's line which has proven to be kind of leaky over the course of 2009.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is another regrettable pick that doesn't make a lot of sense, but give me Florida State. I don't really buy anymore that Florida State is "schizo"; I just think they're playing very even competition on a week to week basis. Even without their stud QB Christian Ponder, I think the team will rally and come up with a road victory against the down-on-their-luck Demon Deacons. I'll go with FSU, 34-31.



When: 12:00 PM ET, ESPN Classic

Why You Should Care: Northwestern can't possibly follow up their historic upset win over Iowa with a loss to Illinois, can they? Yes, yes that very well may occur. The Illini have either ran into two very mediocre teams with semi-decent records/reputations, or they are really experiencing a turnaround. This rivalry game will be a good barometer of which is the case.

Northwestern Will Win Because...: They're elated. Even with a hobbling Kafka, coach Pat Fitzgerald went to sophomore QB Dan Persa who ran around against the Hawkeyes. There's a good chance the dual-QB system is employed again and it could keep Illinois off-balance.

Illinois Will Win Because...: Could Illinois' "comeback" of sorts have come at a worse time? I mean, if they were playing like this at the beginning of the year, they might have beaten Purdue and Indiana and wouldn't need to win out to qualify for a bowl game. Oh well. Zook, who was definitely on the hot seat after a disappointing 2008, will take whatever he can away from this. As mediocre as Illinois' defense has been over this season, I don't think they have to worry about Northwestern. As last week showed, this isn't an offense that will blow anyone's doors away.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Jacob Charest. Juice Williams will have to will his team to a victory from the bench after suffering an injury last week, but Charest has the ability, unlike Williams or McGee, to get the ball downfield ACCURATELY to his solid WR corps. He's got a lot of potential and should be the starter for the next three years in this offense.

And the Crystal Ball Says: You gotta like Illinois right now. The Illini have found a passer who fits the system. He's a redshirt freshman so while he doesn't have a boatload of experience, the ability is certainly there. I think Northwestern will suffer from a big letdown. This stuff happens in college football all the time, so I'll go with Illinois 35-30 (who still won't go to a bowl game after losing Cincy and probably Fresno State too).



When: 12:30 PM ET, Versus

Why You Should Care: The Big 12 North is definitely in the balance. With Missouri sitting at 1-4 after dropping a home game versus Baylor, the North will still come down to Nebraska or Kansas State. A loss here for KSU wouldn't do that much damage in all reality, so maybe that statement is a little hyperbolic.

Missouri Will Win Because...: They have a passing game that should have some success against the Wildcats. Currently, KSU ranks 83rd in pass defense. Even though Missouri is struggling, their offense led by Blaine Gabbert is still putting up some numbers.

Kansas State Will Win Because...: Missouri is either cold or they've been exposed. Dropping four of their last five either way isn't a good thing. Kansas State plays better special teams and eeked out a win last week against rival Kansas.

Keep an Eye on...: KSU RB Daniel Thomas. Thomas has been ultra-effective at giving Bill Snyder a legitimate rushing threat. Kansas State ranks 23rd in the nation in rushing yards per game and going against Missouri's defensive front is not that big of a deal.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Missouri in an "upset". I think both of these teams are pretty much even overall. The Tigers have the better offense and I think that's what this game should come down to. Gabbert will approach 400 yards passing on the road in this affair as they win a tight matchup, 40-35.

Upset Alert (a.k.a., what it says)

When: 12:00 PM ET, Big 10 Network

Why You Should Care: I hope I'm not doing this out of homerism, but the struggling Michigan Wolverines still are clinging to their hopes of making a bowl game after the disaster that was 2008. Wisconsin has put together a nice season, but they have no wins of note unless you want to count Michigan State or Fresno State.

Michigan Will Win Because...: I still get this sense that they've turned things around. It's messed up, isn't it? I'm no apologetic Michigan fan by any means, but Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue could have easily went the other way. Tate Forcier is like that Winter Warlock from Santa Claus is Coming to Town; he has some magic left (not magic corn, but you get the point). Wisconsin absolutely choked last year in Ann Arbor and I wouldn't put it past them to do the same.

Wisconsin Will Win Because...: Yeah, but this should be a different team in Madison. Michigan's defense is downright pathetic so if their power ground game gets churning, this should be over by the start of the fourth quarter.

Keep an Eye on...: Wisconsin WR Nick Toon. Toon hasn't been out of this world or anything and he certainly won't win a Belitnikoff Award for his offensive output, but he's still solid and the go-to guy for Tolzien. I think Toon should stretch the defense out enough to get the rushing attack some help.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Wisconsin will win, but I really really want to pick Michigan in an upset. Again, not because I'm a fan, but because I think they have a shot at pulling off this upset in a shootout. Forget about the defense, they won't do anything. I like what Rodriguez has transformed this offense into, but Greg Robinson will ultimately fail this team. Wisconsin wins it by working the ground, 38-34.



When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN360

Why You Should Care: Well, Virginia is done. With Clemson and Virginia Tech coming after this and sitting at 3-6, those early losses to William & Mary and Southern Miss look even more glaring now than they did in September. Boston College is still in the hunt to take the ACC Atlantic, but it's a longshot.

Boston College Will Win Because...: Oh, alright, this is the Virginia we all knew and loved. After losing three straight then winning three straight, the Cavs have lost, you guessed it, three straight. Last week's 52-17 loss to Miami kind of encapsulated what this team was about. The defense is average as always, but the offense has tanked again.

Virginia Will Win Because...: It's tough to make a case for the Cavs, but defensively they might have a decent matchup against Boston College. The rush defense of Virginia has suffered a bit, but Boston College has really struggled at moving the football on the ground or through the air.

Keep an Eye on...: (Edit: Actually, never mind, I guess Sewell will start) QB Marc Verica. With the benching of Sewell, Verica will need to step his game up. Groh's offense has struggled year after year after year, so there's no need to expect anything more than 20 points in this game. If Verica gives a surprising effort, Virginia will have a shot.

And the Crystal Ball Says: If you frequent this site, you'd notice that I stupidy, stunningly, and moronically said Wyoming would shock BYU in last week's "Upset Alert" segment. Final score? 52-0. Right. I'm going to repeat my same mistake and pick a team with a reeling defense and no offense to speak of to pull off an upset. I don't even know if Virginia will be inspired or not, but the minute I saw this game, I had a gut feeling the Cavs would give one of those WTF ACC performances we've come to expect. I like Virginia to get the shocker of Saturday in this game with a 17-13 upset. Don't ask me why.



When: 3:30 PM ET, CBS College Sports

Why You Should Care: Let's go back to 2007. Navy lost to Delaware and beat Notre Dame in that season. Should we expect a repeat of that game in 2009? We might. This Delaware team doesn't have Joe Flacco, but they are respectable in the Colonial Athletic Association which is probably on par with the Sun Belt or the MAC. So think of it that way.

Delaware Will Win Because...: Oooh boy, this matchup is juicy. The final score of that game last year was 59-52 with Flacco going bananas. This year, they have another potential future NFL draft pick with Pat Devlin, whom you may recall transferred from Penn State. He's having a good year with solid receivers and just to happens to be going up against the nation's 106th ranked pass defense. The Blue Hens have done a good job maintaining opposing rushing attacks as well.

Navy Will Win Because...: Those stats are fine and dandy, but Navy just beat Notre Dame, AGAIN! NAVY BEAT NOTRE DAME ONCE AGAIN! There's cause to celebrate around Navy, but they'll come in focused and ready to take care of business.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Pat Devlin. He's the key to this game. Obviously his line will need to give him some protection along with the receivers finding some open lanes, but if he has success, the Blue Hens will be in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is one of the worst things that could happen to potentially embarrass the Middies. Delaware plays at another level of college football so that's good, but one game after beating Notre Dame and one game before a road trip to Hawaii? That is an upset sandwich if there ever was one. Regardless, Navy's rushing game should take control and avoid the upset in a game that should go well into the 4th quarter. Give me the Midshipmen, 34-30.

I Pity Da Fool Who Misses These Games (a.k.a., the best games of the week)

When: 3:30 PM ET, FSN

Why You Should Care: This is the Pac-10 in a nutshell: If Stanford wins and Oregon loses, there will be a massive tie for first place. This is assuming if Oregon loses to either Oregon State or Arizona which are both very possible. You'd wind up with a three-way tie for first place. If USC wins out and Oregon loses once more to Oregon State, there could be another three-way-tie between Oregon, USC, and Oregon State.

Stanford Will Win Because...: USC looks lost. Matt Barkley is feeling the affects of the progressing season and he's held the offense back. He's not getting a ton of help, but the defense outside of the Oregon collapse is doing its part. Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck have been phenomenal together and should have a good game even against this Trojan D.

USC Will Win Because...: A lot of fuss has been made over USC's struggles, but remember, this is a team who has had their biggest games on the road. With the Trojans being fueled by their home crowd for only the fourth time this season, I think USC will be pumped up like they usually are. Stanford's defense hasn't been scary by any means, so Barkley will have a nice day.

Keep an Eye on...: Stanford sophomore WR Chris Owusu. Owusu may be the second receiver on the team, but he's their best special teams athlete. I think field position might be the difference between FGs and touchdowns in what should be a decent-sized scoring game. If Owusu can be an impact player from the two slot and as a returner, Stanford will be in good position.

And the Crystal Ball Says: At home, USC should take this with sound defense. The Trojans aren't going to light anybody's defense up with a rebuilding offense, but if McKnight can get into space, there will be enough offensive support. Look for USC to win this by playing the better defense between the two teams as they regain a bit of that usual swagger, 35-27.



When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: The Big 10's bid to the Rose Bowl is at stake in this one. Penn State isn't going and neither is Wisconsin. It's either Ohio State or Iowa in Pasadena and that will depend on the victor of this game. Iowa is coming off of a tough season-defining loss to Northwestern while Ohio State has gotten on a bit of a roll.

Iowa Will Win Because...: Defense. You think 2009's supposed "team of destiny" got where they were out of luck? There's a reason after all that this team was in a constant position to win football games and it's because of their stellar defensive play. The Hawkeyes are currently allowing 291 yards of total offense per game.

Ohio State Will Win Because...: Two words: James Vanderberg. Vanderberg is only a redshirt freshman and a raw prospect, but he looked extremely unprepared and unpolished completing 9 of 27 last week. Granted, Stanzi wasn't spectacular so if Iowa plays defense like it's capable of doing, this should still be a tight game. However, the Buckeyes' defense should eat him alive.

Keep an Eye on...: Vanderberg. The game basically falls on his shoulders. Stanzi was a leader and a game-changer with his poise and pocket presence even if he had average skill. Vanderberg will have to be vastly more efficient than he was last week if Iowa wants to win.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Ohio State gets to pack their bags for the Rose Bowl as they win yet another Big 10 championship. Unless they lose a stunner against Michigan, this will be an opportunity for them to win the conference outright. Iowa will keep in it with defense, but the lack of offensive production will do them in for a second straight loss. Ohio State should seal the deal on a decent season by their recent standards with a 18-10 win.



When: 7:30 PM ET, CBS College Sports

Why You Should Care: I'm starting to think that CBS Sports, not the TV station the entity that broadcasts the SEC on CBS, should have the power to pick two Mountain West games per year and broadcast them on CBS. Right? This game should be made for a national audience, but alas, specialized cable has done us in yet again. The MWC should jump ship and head to ESPN the second their TV contract is up with Versus and CBS.

Utah Will Win Because...: Over the course of their nice little six game winning streak, the Utes have been playing top-notch defensive football. They are only allowing 16 points per game which might be good enough to keep TCU from scoring too many points in this one.

TCU Will Win Because...: If they were able to dismantle BYU by 31 on the road, they should be able to take care of a better Utah team at home, correct? I'd like to think so. This is the most complete team Gary Patterson has ever had the fortune of coaching. The defense is nothing new; in fact, you could argue that the Horned Frogs have seen better defensive squads since the 2005 season. However, they now have a potent offense to go along with that and specifically the rushing game.

Keep an Eye on...: How about DE Wayne Daniels? All the attention goes to Jerry Hughes, but Daniels has been superb as the number two defensive end. Daniels can get in the face of freshman QB Jordan Wynn.

And the Crystal Ball Says: The Horned Frogs. All the way. This team should finish the year undefeated and this is their last main obstacle. The defense and offense is just playing at too high of a level for the Utes to handle. Utah is a good football team and this exceeded their expectations in what was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year, but still good enough for third or second in the MWC. The Utes are throwing a freshman QB up against TCU on the road and it just won't work. TCU takes it, 33-14.



When: 8:00 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: Is this the end of the road for Charlie Weis? Maybe, maybe not. He should survive for one more year if he finishes at 8-4 with a bowl win, but he's playing with fire. Meanwhile, Pitt needs this game for Big East respect because if they do go on to win the Big East title with non-conference losses to NC State and Notre Dame, the perception of the Big East will take a hit.

Notre Dame Will Win Because...: You have to like Pitt's defense, but Notre Dame is still firing on all cylinders. Sure the Navy game was not a display in offensive excellency, but Jimmy Clausen still can hit the deep the ball.

Pitt Will Win Because...: Notre Dame has done a decent job at winning the turnover battle, but if Pitt holds onto the football, their offense should take care of business. With Dion Lewis and the suddenly-efficient Bill Stull in the backfield, they should pick apart Notre Dame's poor defense.

Keep an Eye on...: ND S Kyle McCarthy. McCarty is kind of the do-it-all leader of Notre Dame's defense. He leads the team in tackles and ranks 6th nationally in interceptions. Notre Dame has to play some defense finally if they want a shot to win this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: If this game were at Notre Dame, I'd probably go with the Irish. But since the Panthers have this at Heinz Field, I'll go with Pitt. In the end, there should just be too much offense for Notre Dame's shoddy defense to handle. Dion Lewis should rip off some big gains in a very close matchup. Pitt wins, 37-34.



When: 8:00 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: While the conference races become this much clearer as we hit the midway point in November, Oklahoma State still has a prayer to win the Big 12 South. Of course that would take Texas choking away games to Kansas and Texas A&M which probably will not happen, but still. If you like fireworks, this is your type of game.

Texas Tech Will Win Because...: This hasn't been quite the same Oklahoma State offense we were expecting. They are still averaging 34 points per game so that's nothing to scoff at, but without Dez Bryant, they have lost a bit of steam. The Red Raiders are fresh and off a bye, so they should be ready to go.

Oklahoma State Will Win Because...: The Cowboys should be able to run the football. Teams usually prefer to throw the ball against Texas Tech which plays right into their want of getting into a shootout, but Gundy is smarter than that. The M.O. for OSU is pounding it on the ground with Keith Toston.

Keep an Eye on...: QB Zac Robinson. As long as Robinson doesn't force anything, he should be good to go. You get the sense that this is a quarterback who has tried to do too much in his more-limited-than-usual role. Texas Tech will give Oklahoma State soft coverage, so it is his job to exploit that.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Oklahoma State should take care of business in Stillwater. Texas Tech's QB situation is in a bit of flux, not that it matters, right? Still, I don't think you're going to see the usual stats that a seasoned vet would throw up in this offense. Oklahoma State is going to win a shootout by putting away the Red Raiders early in the 4th quarter. 41-31.

Best of the Rest (a.k.a., what it says)

When: 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: Are there more important games out there? Yes. Will there be more competitive games between SEC schools? Sure. I just felt the need to preview this game for the fact that Idaho is finally competitive. Who knows, maybe they can shock Boise State in a rivalry-defining fashion?

Idaho Will Win Because...: It'll be extremely hard to do this on the road. If the game were at the Kibbie Dome, their shot would improve tremendously, but it's not. From what I've seen, Idaho, yes Idaho, has one of the deeper stable of RBs in the non-BCS ranks between Princeton McCarty, Deonte Jackson, and DeMaundray Woolridge.

Boise State Will Win Because...: Idaho is a bit of a paper tiger. I love the story as much as the next guy, but there comes a point where talent wins out. This Vandal team just isn't prepared to beat the top-tier of the WAC quite yet that consists of Nevada, Fresno State, and Boise State. The Broncos should take this game easily without Nathan Enderle behind center.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Ryan Winterswyk. The Broncos shouldn't have a huge issue getting after second-string QB Brian Reader. Reader struggled against Fresno State last week and didn't release the football soon enough. He didn't get sacked, but the Vandal offensive line won't get him that much time as Boise's front four is a lot different than Fresno's who has struggled this season.

And the Crystal Ball Says: The dream season will not include an upset against Boise State. This is definitely a team that will be pumped up to take on the Broncos who have had their number in a big way over the years. Being a couple years ahead of the Vandals in jumping to the FBS kind of sticks in the craw of the Vandal faithful, so there is an axe to grind. I think Idaho will be motivated, but Boise will be just as motivated to lay the smackdown on Idaho. Boise State wins, 53-21.



When: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Why You Should Care: The Tar Heels still need one more game to become bowl eligible. They might not get it here with the way Miami has been playing. The Hurricanes are still trying for a 10 win regular season, so there's still things left to play for.

Miami Will Win Because...: As good as North Carolina's pass defense looks, Jacory Harris and the Hurricane offense are having a very solid run. This isn't your typical Miami defense which ranks 52nd in scoring D, but will that really be an issue against North Carolina's offense? They have no clue how to move the ball.

North Carolina Will Win Because...: If they can keep up the defensive performance, this should stay a close game at home. This is a very active group that ranks 8th in tackles for loss and 27th in sacks.

Keep an Eye on...: UNC QB T.J. Yates. Yates has been an utter disappointment this season. Not that he's been horrible, just that this has been a clone of 2008. No progression at all. Yates will be going up against a respectable pass defense, so he will be tested.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Miami should take this. I expect it to be a close game, but one that Randy Shannon's bunch has in hand throughout the game. Since it's in Chapel Hill, there's an added dimension of difficulty, but Miami will still win, 28-13.



When: 4:00 PM ET, ESPN Gameplan

Why You Should Care: Again, I'm not going to be previewing Florida/South Carolina or Tennessee/Ole Miss. Those should be entertaining football games, but if you're a fan of offense and haven't had a chance to see Ryan Matthews and/or Nevada's rushing attack, you need to tune in.

Fresno State Will Win Because...: Teams can run on Nevada if they choose to do so, so don't be fooled by their 114 yards per game allowed. Matthews is a back averaging over 7 yards per carry in an offense that ranks 5th nationally in rushing yards.

Nevada Will Win Because...: Who leads the nation in rushing offense? Navy? Georgia Tech? Wrongo, it's Nevada! The Wolf Pack are on an absolute tear rushing the football with approximately 320 yards per game. Taua, Lippincott, and Kaepernick are all fabulous operators of this pistol rushing game and Fresno's front 7 has been a bit lackluster so far this season.

Keep an Eye on...: WR Seyi Ajirotutu. A bunch will be made of the rushing attacks in this game and while they will no doubt make the difference, Ajirotutu should eat Nevada's secondary alive. Colburn and he will hook up on some big passing plays considering Nevada is one of the worst coverage teams I have ever seen.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Nevada should win at home. Both teams are going to score at will, but Nevada has the match up in their favor. The number one rushing offense is going against the 96th ranked rush defense in the nation. This will probably equate to a Nevada victory but if Fresno's passing game gets going, it could just as easily go the other way. Give me Nevada, 51-44.



When: 7:45 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: ESPN is really abusing this SEC deal, aren't they? We could be watching more entertaining conference matchups, but noooo, we get Mississippi State on national TV once again. Oh well, this could wind up being another competitive game like the Bulldogs had against Florida a few weeks ago.

Alabama Will Win Because...: Power run game. Ingram should have a good day going up against what is not a very good defense. Mississippi State is a team that has gotten tagged on the ground against some of the better offenses they've played (390 rushing yards vs. Auburn, 119 vs. Houston, 249 vs. Florida). So they're vulnerable there.

Mississippi State Will Win Because...: They're the type of team that gets up for these kinds of games. I'd look for the Bulldogs to have a decent day offensively against Alabama. Yes, you read that right. If Anthony Dixon can take the load off of Lee's shoulders, they might actually move the ball against the Tide.

Keep an Eye on...: CB/KR Javier Arenas. Alabama is struggling in the passing game right now, make no mistake about it. Field position will be important in this game, so look for Arenas to play a big part in the return game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Alabama definitely should win this game, but that's not to say Mississippi State can't make it interesting. I think the dynamic of Dan Mullen against a team he's familiar with will make it less competitive though. I'm afraid that Bama will make this a laugher in the 4th quarter after wearing out Mississippi State on the ground. Roll Tide, 31-16.



When: 7:00 PM ET, Versus

Why You Should Care: While nobody is really making a big deal out of this game, Arizona is still very much in the thick of the Pac-10 race. They still haven't squared off against USC and Oregon though, but they're still in the race and that's all that matters. A road game against struggling Cal is tricky.

Arizona Will Win Because...: They have the offense right now. Without Jahvid Best, can Cal match the Wildcat's offensive ability? Nick Foles, the Michigan State transfer, has had a great year so far in Sonny Dykes' offense. Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin have been great at rushing the football too, so this isn't some pass-happy system.

Cal Will Win Because...: They still have Shane Vereen. Vereen is probably the best backup RB in the nation, so he'll have an opportunity to show what he's made of. Before running into offensively-challenged UCLA and Washington State, Zona had a string of allowing 30+ points a game. I think Cal might have some success scoring in this one.

Keep an Eye on...: Arizona DE Ricky Elmore. Elmore has been fantastic in his junior year helping the Wildcat secondary buy some time. Riley will be under pressure in this game.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Picking Arizona would be an easy thing to do here. I believe the Wildcats should still come up with a hard-fought victory, but that's not to say it'll be easy. The Golden Bears laid an egg last week against Oregon State and while consistency is not something Cal fans are used to, I think they show up to play in this one. Arizona has just enough offensive juice to win the game, 38-31.



Bonus Pick'em

Ole Miss 23, Tennessee 21
Clemson 44, NC State 30
Michigan State 30, Purdue 27
Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 14
Florida 33, South Carolina 16
Nebraska 26, Kansas 21
Southern Miss 35, Marshall 25
Auburn 39, Georgia 30
Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 20
Oregon 47, Arizona State 24