No time for pointless pleasentires, let's get tracking on this nonsense, shall we?
Beyond Appalachian State
What has been the most important and obvious lesson of the 2007 college football season? Consider that on the same weekend Michigan, left for dead just two weeks ago, upended Penn State, FCS mega-power Appalachian State fell to conference foe Woffard. Now think for a moment that Louisville, a preseason Top 10 team, lost to an 0-3 Syracuse team that we were all saying was among the worst in the country just last week.
Starting to get the picture?
I think we can say with assurance that we have reached a new level of parity within the game of college football, an “Any Given Saturday” landscape if you will. That’s not to imply we’ve never huge upsets in the past, but rather to paint a portrait of a rapidly changing college football landscape in which traditional powers are not nearly as indestructible as they used to be. I mean, how else can you explain 1-3 Utah, which was shut out by UNLV this past weekend, thrash then Top 20 UCLA? You just can’t, which leads me to believe we are seeing a shift in the way in which college football is played. I’m not referencing just upsets either, but rather then overwhelming amount of “close-calls” we’ve been seeing seemingly “favored” teams deal with over the past four weeks. For every major upset we’ve seen this year, there have been two or three “scares” that very few of us saw coming. A prime example of this is Ball State nearly beating Nebraska on Saturday. After losing to a mediocre Miami (Oh) team in the opener, the Cardinals have suddenly found an offense that put up more than 600 yards on Ball State’s defense. The point is, you just can’t tell with teams anymore, as one team’s performance from week to week deviates so much based on matchups, execution, and mindset. We’re no longer living in an era of “they suck” or “they’re gonna kill them” in broad terms. In fact, outside of the Top 15 teams in the country, I don’t if we can even get an accurate count on where the rest of the pack is, as team 16-50ish could probably all beat each other at different points throughout the season.
There are several factors which may have contributed and continue to contribute to this new and growing parity, chief of which may actually be a long term trend we are just starting to see. It has to deal with the growth of the sport, specifically the growth of the sport at the high school level in relation to the college level. It’s a fairly simple theory, one that says that as the number of good players from the high school ranks increase we will no longer see the huge disparity in talent we had been so accustomed to, and as the process of recruiting becomes even more of a crapshoot good players are going to start to be more evenly spread out across the country.
Of course if you don’t buy that argument, you could just pull an ESPN and say that it’s all because of “the spread.”
Mid Major Special
1. This Spot Now Available- Sure, Hawaii is 4-0, but two of those wins came against FCS teams and the other two against weak non-BCS teams. The point is that there hasn’t been a dominant non-BCS conference team up to this point, and no one program had distinguished itself as ahead of the pack.
2. Hawaii- The only undefeated non-BCS team left, defeating traditional powerhouses like Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern.
3. Tulsa- Being thrashed by Oklahoma may not have been what the Golden Hurricane had in mind, but their win over BYU two weeks ago was very impressive.
4. Boise State- The Broncos picked up a solid win over Wyoming two weeks ago, but we’ll see if they’re for real against a good Southern Miss team this Thursday night.
5. BYU- Now that the Cougars got a solid win over Air Force, I look for them to ascend to the top of the conference.
6. Wyoming- The offense imploded with turnovers against a solid Ohio team, but the Pokes still found a way to win.
7. TCU- The Horned Frogs got back on track with a win over SMU, but the offense is still a major concern. Had the offense not thrown away the game against Air Force they would be sitting at 3-1.
On the Cusp: Boise State, Troy, Florida Atlantic (OMG!?!), Ball State, Air Force, Houston, Southern Miss, Northern Iowa, Appalachian State.
Woodhead Watch
Danny Woodhead is a 5’8 white guy playing for Division II Chadron State in the remote corner of northwest Nebraska. Why is this significant? Because in the coming weeks we’ll likely see him break, nay shatter, the NCAA’s rushing record.
Danny went right back to work after an off week, as he rushed for 160 yards on 31 carries in a 35-7 win over the Colorado School of Mines (actually a real college.) In doing so he passed Germaine Race to become Division II’s all-time leading rusher, and is now only 288 yards shy of the NCAA all time record.
With any discussion of Woodhead’s college career we inevitably must discuss the possibility of him playing in the pros. If you’re asking me whether I think Woodhead can not only make it in the NFL but contribute on a team, I’ll tell you “yes.” If you’re asking me whether or not he will get a chance to, I’ll tell “probably not”
Unfortunately we live in a sports landscape in which stereotypes define how players are viewed. There is a reason I open up this segment by saying that Danny is a “5’8 white guy from Chadron State.” It doesn’t matter that he has great quickness and 4.4 speed, or that his frame makes him incredibly elusive or that he has surprising power for his size, the point is that he doesn’t pass the “looks” test which means everything to scouts. For someone who will likely run for more yards than anyone else in NCAA history, that sure is a shame.
Take it to the Bank
Random Predictions for the upcoming week in college football. Remember, I'm kinda an expert on these matters.
Army over Temple: This will likely be an “upset” pick for many, but I like Army at home in this one. Temple has shown vast improvement but for as bad as Army’s offense has been the Black Knights do play respectable defense. Once more this is a must-win game for Army, which will win this game by a grind-it-out kind of final score.
Virginia over Pitt: Pittsburgh has very little offense outside of running back Larod Stephens-Howling, mostly on account of losing their quarterback, top wideout, and half their offensive line to significant injuries. Virginia has one of the best run defenses in the ACC and is extremely stout along the defensive line with everyone’s All-American Chris Long. Again, expect a grind-it-out type of game with Virginia coming out on top.
UC Davis over San Jose State: This is my upset pick for the week, and it has nothing to do with UC David being among the better FCS teams this year. After going 9-4 last season San Jose State has started off abysmally this year, not getting near the amount of breaks they did last season. After struggling with Utah State last weekend, I think the Spartans drop this one.
What has been the most important and obvious lesson of the 2007 college football season? Consider that on the same weekend Michigan, left for dead just two weeks ago, upended Penn State, FCS mega-power Appalachian State fell to conference foe Woffard. Now think for a moment that Louisville, a preseason Top 10 team, lost to an 0-3 Syracuse team that we were all saying was among the worst in the country just last week.
Starting to get the picture?
I think we can say with assurance that we have reached a new level of parity within the game of college football, an “Any Given Saturday” landscape if you will. That’s not to imply we’ve never huge upsets in the past, but rather to paint a portrait of a rapidly changing college football landscape in which traditional powers are not nearly as indestructible as they used to be. I mean, how else can you explain 1-3 Utah, which was shut out by UNLV this past weekend, thrash then Top 20 UCLA? You just can’t, which leads me to believe we are seeing a shift in the way in which college football is played. I’m not referencing just upsets either, but rather then overwhelming amount of “close-calls” we’ve been seeing seemingly “favored” teams deal with over the past four weeks. For every major upset we’ve seen this year, there have been two or three “scares” that very few of us saw coming. A prime example of this is Ball State nearly beating Nebraska on Saturday. After losing to a mediocre Miami (Oh) team in the opener, the Cardinals have suddenly found an offense that put up more than 600 yards on Ball State’s defense. The point is, you just can’t tell with teams anymore, as one team’s performance from week to week deviates so much based on matchups, execution, and mindset. We’re no longer living in an era of “they suck” or “they’re gonna kill them” in broad terms. In fact, outside of the Top 15 teams in the country, I don’t if we can even get an accurate count on where the rest of the pack is, as team 16-50ish could probably all beat each other at different points throughout the season.
There are several factors which may have contributed and continue to contribute to this new and growing parity, chief of which may actually be a long term trend we are just starting to see. It has to deal with the growth of the sport, specifically the growth of the sport at the high school level in relation to the college level. It’s a fairly simple theory, one that says that as the number of good players from the high school ranks increase we will no longer see the huge disparity in talent we had been so accustomed to, and as the process of recruiting becomes even more of a crapshoot good players are going to start to be more evenly spread out across the country.
Of course if you don’t buy that argument, you could just pull an ESPN and say that it’s all because of “the spread.”
Mid Major Special
1. This Spot Now Available- Sure, Hawaii is 4-0, but two of those wins came against FCS teams and the other two against weak non-BCS teams. The point is that there hasn’t been a dominant non-BCS conference team up to this point, and no one program had distinguished itself as ahead of the pack.
2. Hawaii- The only undefeated non-BCS team left, defeating traditional powerhouses like Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern.
3. Tulsa- Being thrashed by Oklahoma may not have been what the Golden Hurricane had in mind, but their win over BYU two weeks ago was very impressive.
4. Boise State- The Broncos picked up a solid win over Wyoming two weeks ago, but we’ll see if they’re for real against a good Southern Miss team this Thursday night.
5. BYU- Now that the Cougars got a solid win over Air Force, I look for them to ascend to the top of the conference.
6. Wyoming- The offense imploded with turnovers against a solid Ohio team, but the Pokes still found a way to win.
7. TCU- The Horned Frogs got back on track with a win over SMU, but the offense is still a major concern. Had the offense not thrown away the game against Air Force they would be sitting at 3-1.
On the Cusp: Boise State, Troy, Florida Atlantic (OMG!?!), Ball State, Air Force, Houston, Southern Miss, Northern Iowa, Appalachian State.
Woodhead Watch
Danny Woodhead is a 5’8 white guy playing for Division II Chadron State in the remote corner of northwest Nebraska. Why is this significant? Because in the coming weeks we’ll likely see him break, nay shatter, the NCAA’s rushing record.
Danny went right back to work after an off week, as he rushed for 160 yards on 31 carries in a 35-7 win over the Colorado School of Mines (actually a real college.) In doing so he passed Germaine Race to become Division II’s all-time leading rusher, and is now only 288 yards shy of the NCAA all time record.
With any discussion of Woodhead’s college career we inevitably must discuss the possibility of him playing in the pros. If you’re asking me whether I think Woodhead can not only make it in the NFL but contribute on a team, I’ll tell you “yes.” If you’re asking me whether or not he will get a chance to, I’ll tell “probably not”
Unfortunately we live in a sports landscape in which stereotypes define how players are viewed. There is a reason I open up this segment by saying that Danny is a “5’8 white guy from Chadron State.” It doesn’t matter that he has great quickness and 4.4 speed, or that his frame makes him incredibly elusive or that he has surprising power for his size, the point is that he doesn’t pass the “looks” test which means everything to scouts. For someone who will likely run for more yards than anyone else in NCAA history, that sure is a shame.
Take it to the Bank
Random Predictions for the upcoming week in college football. Remember, I'm kinda an expert on these matters.
Army over Temple: This will likely be an “upset” pick for many, but I like Army at home in this one. Temple has shown vast improvement but for as bad as Army’s offense has been the Black Knights do play respectable defense. Once more this is a must-win game for Army, which will win this game by a grind-it-out kind of final score.
Virginia over Pitt: Pittsburgh has very little offense outside of running back Larod Stephens-Howling, mostly on account of losing their quarterback, top wideout, and half their offensive line to significant injuries. Virginia has one of the best run defenses in the ACC and is extremely stout along the defensive line with everyone’s All-American Chris Long. Again, expect a grind-it-out type of game with Virginia coming out on top.
UC Davis over San Jose State: This is my upset pick for the week, and it has nothing to do with UC David being among the better FCS teams this year. After going 9-4 last season San Jose State has started off abysmally this year, not getting near the amount of breaks they did last season. After struggling with Utah State last weekend, I think the Spartans drop this one.
You can check out more of Adam's writing on his Navy-centric blog Pitch Right. Photo courtesy of Jamie Rhodes at The Courier-Journal.
1 response(s):
looks like you really like the MWC as top non-bcs leagues. I think you have TCU overated they have no offense, even though Aaron Brown is back, but that list next week better include New Mexico especially if they beat BYU. New Mexico has looked real good after that abysmal start against UTEP
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