Bowl-o-Rama: Dec. 22nd Edition

We've got a triple-header on the menu today with the Papajohns.com Bowl, New Mexico Bowl, and the Las Vegas Bowl. Enjoy the games!

Background Info & History

You know what's interesting? I have never actually had Papa John's Pizza. There's one nearby in Flint, but it's too far away from me. I'm not sure about you guys, but the best pizza in mid-Michigan is from a local chain called B&T. That stuff is.....stupendous, excellent, fantastic, whatever. I think Hungry Howie's is a national chain. It was founded in Michigan. Shoot, fatty is rambling again .

I'm sure you're aware that, probably, the one bowl sponsor that gives the rest a bad name is none other than the one sponsored by Papa John's Web site. But what about the history of the game? There is virtually none with this being the second game ever played. Last time was a forgettable victory for USF over ECU.

Southern Miss Storyline

The biggest issue surrounding Southern Miss and the one thing that the 2007 Golden Eagle football team will be remembered for is obviously the departure of steady-as-a-rock head coach, Jeff Bower (even Bob Seger might be impressed).

Southern Miss was hardly a stand-out team at any point this season. This was actually a team that many pundits thought could be a BCS sleeper. In my predictions, I didn't have Southern Miss going to be the BCS, but I was looking at 9 or 10 wins. Can anybody say, disappointment?

There were opportunities for two huge games that would make-or-break their BCS hopes. They were able to play Tennessee and Boise State but Southern Miss possessed no ability to compete, much less beat them.

In one of the biggest WTF games which occurred on a Wednesday in front of everybody, they choked big-time. They were defeated by Rice. By RICE folks! That Rice team that lost to Nicholls State and couldn't stop anybody defensively besides Southern Miss and Nicholls State. It was one of the ugliest losses in the Bower era in terms of preparation.

The Golden Eagles bounced back nicely looking halfway decent to close out the year. From the Rice loss onward, Southern Miss only suffered losses to UCF and Memphis.

Cincinnati Storyline

The storyline for Cincinnati is simple: Brian Kelly.

No, it's not like he took the Bearcat program from a steaming pile of crap and made it into gold, but at the very least, he extended upon what Mark Dantonio was building, benefiting from Dantonio's defensive genius and his own offensive innovation.

If you have read this blog, Kelly's name has been mentioned close to 1,806 times but that's mainly my little bit of homerism because he is a home-grown product around my parts. But what about the season?

Cincy started off the year smoking Southeast Missouri State 59-3. The week after, the unknown Bearcat program trounced Oregon State in Nippert Stadium by a score of 34-3. This pretty much announced that Cincinnati has arrived.

After the Bearcats managed to beat Rutgers at their place, this team looked like it might not recover from two very big, under-the-radar upsets. Cincinnati lost to Louisville and Pitt, the definition of mediocre if there ever is one. So was Cincinnati just an overrated team that pulled off one upset on a relatively simple schedule? It turns out that they closed the season out on fire defeating USF and UConn, two of the Big East's other top teams.

Match ups of the Game

Southern Miss Passing Game vs. Cincinnati Pass Defense-Not much of a surprise here, but Southern Miss wasn't able to throw the football effectively this year. Most of the damage Southern Miss does is on the ground with Damion Fletcher. But the 90th ranked pass offense will go up against the 105th ranked pass defense. If there's one definitive weakness of this team, it's the fact that they don't defend the pass all that well. However, this is because many teams realize that they won't run against this team. Cincy is 38th in pass efficiency defense. So this should be the most interesting match up of the game.

Southern Miss Pass Rush vs. Cincinnati O-line-When looking at these teams from these two particular areas, neither is that great. Cincinnati has looked decent at times blocking for Mauk, but in some games there has been spotty pass protection. Southern Miss isn't great at creating sacks or making plays in the backfield for that matter. If Cincinnati can contain the pass rush of USM, this game could get ugly.

Keep an Eye on...

Anthony Hoke. This guy is one of the best defensive players on the team. The reason you have to keep your eyes peeled for this particular player is the fact that he's tied for 6th in the nation in sacks; he averages 1 per game.

He's been a pass rushing terror, but he's not all about that. He can defend the run as well somewhat providing a dual-threat for the offensive lines.

Southern Miss isn't great at blocking for Jeremy Young, but Young can scramble. It will be interesting to see how much of a factor Hoke will play.


Damion Fletcher. He's one of the best running backs in Southern Miss history and it's safe to say that even if he is only a sophomore.

The stud is the one carrying this Southern Miss team from just being downright mediocre. He's led Southern Miss to become a rushing powerhouse currently ranking 22nd in the country.

Keep in mind, Cincy is excellent at defending the run so this game could hinge on whether or not Fletcher could get going.

Must-See-Ometer

This game gets a 4 out of 10 on the SSO Must-See-Ometer. It's not a very intriguing football game by any means. Southern Miss is a slightly above-average C-USA team going against one of the Big East's best in Cincinnati.

However, there is one major storyline and that's the departing of head coach Bower. This is used by many USM pickers to explain why they're going with the upset. Don't be surprised at all if there's one last "hurrah" effort for his going-out party, if you will.

Prediction

I'm taking Cincinnati here. Whoopty-do, big surprise. The Bearcats just have a lot more firepower offensively with the mad scientist Kelly operating the scheme. If Cincy gets Butler Benton rolling on the ground game, don't expect Southern Miss to hang around much.

Give me Cincy, 37-17 (32 Confidence points).

Recap

Man, that Cincinnati team came out out-of-sync. It appeared that the layoff really did get to the Bearcats with Mauk being as cold as ice. Southern Miss wanted that game for Bower, but they didn't have the horses, especially in the passing game.

Background Info & History

Just a little FYI here since the New Mexico Bowl has no sponsor, the trophy is made out of Zia Pueblo pottery which, as you can probably infer, is native to New Mexico.

Last year's game was a big clunker. Even though most expected to be #32 out of 32 bowl games on the must-see list, I thought it would be entertaining. The offenses were really bad but San Jose State came up with a timely stop (especially right on the goal line). The Spartans won the game 20-12 with James Jones and Matt Castelo being named MVPs.

Nevada Storyline

Coming into the 2007 season, the biggest question surrounding this Nevada program was the departure of QB Jeff Rowe who resurrected Nevada football. Nick Graziano was the heir apparent.

However, during the Wolf Pack's loss to Fresno State, Graziano suffered a season-ending injury which forced freshman Colin Kaepernick into the starting role. He never looked back taking the bull by the horns.

If you had to characterize Nevada's season in one word, it would be "almost". We're talking about a team that almost beat Northwestern, Fresno State, Boise State, and Hawaii. Northwestern scored a last minute TD to win, the Fresno State game wasn't as close but Nevada had over 700 yards of offense in the loss, the Sunday night game against Boise State lasted 4 OTs, and of course we all know how Hawaii kicked a last-second FG to beat the boys from Reno. Also, in the loss to San Jose State, Brett Jaekle missed a last-second FG which would have sent the game into overtime.

However, they have been on the good side of almost as well. This Nevada team has survived upset bids from UNLV by 3 points, New Mexico State by 2 points, and Utah State by 3 points. To wrap it up, this Nevada team has been living on the edge all season.

New Mexico Storyline

This Lobo season didn't start off with a bang. In what might have been the ugliest game I have ever seen at the FBS level, they dropped the opener to UTEP 10-6. More of the same from 2006? The Lobos were determined to prove that wrong.

New Mexico has also been involved in some tight games. They pulled off the upset against Arizona earlier this year which might have turned their season around. They dropped a tough game against BYU where Long made the always unpopular decision of punting the ball and never getting it back.

The win against Wyoming showed that this team wasn't planning on going anywhere. Even though they got drilled against TCU 37-0, they also have a solid win against Air Force to their credit.

New Mexico is coming into this game with a number of triumphs and struggles in a screwy season. As far as we can tell though, when New Mexico has the "on" switch flipped, they can play hard and at a high level. Rocky Long's bunch was looking like it was slipping with a step back in 2006, but now the program is headed in the right direction. Now it's just a matter of getting that bowl win....

Match ups of the Game

Nevada Running Game vs. New Mexico Run Defense-The outcome of the game may depend on this one factor. Luke Lippincott (who I will get to in a second) has the potential to be a big part of this Nevada offense. Chris Ault loves running the football and it has shown with an 11th ranked attack. New Mexico is 37th against the run led by Tyler Donaldson.

New Mexico Running Game vs. Nevada Run Defense-Well, we've examined one of the rushing attacks and defenses, how about the other? In what is widely regarded as the biggest twist to this game, New Mexico will be without Rodney Ferguson. That's troubling news for this 84th ranked rushing offense. Nevada has struggled stopping the run and the pass, but they're worse against the run. Ezra Butler is probably their best defensive player and he'll have to perform at LB. Let's just say something has to give.

Keep an Eye on...

Luke Lippincott. As previously stated, if Nevada can run, run, and run some more to wear out this New Mexico team, it'll be up to Lippincott to get the job done.

He's one of the most underrated backs in the nation and when you think of the WAC, you think of passing offense. Nevada doesn't necessarily fit the mold in this regard.

Lippincott, the junior, is responsible for 115 yards a game which is 20th in the country. Luke has played all 12 games and has 8 100+ yard games. He's only hit the 200-mark once, but he is the prototypical consistent RB.



Marcus Smith is my game-changer for the Lobos. This WR can really fly with his size and he's a good NFL prospect.

He, along with Travis Brown, will be a tough combo for the Nevada secondary to contain. Smith ranks 11th in the FBS in receptions per game, a little more than 7.

With Ferguson out, the running game might become even less of a factor. Donovan Portiere will have to look for Smith all game. If you saw what those Memphis WRs did to FAU, Smith might be able to do that to Nevada.

Must-See-Ometer

This game scores a 4 out of 10 on the Must-See-Ometer. If I'm a 'tweener compared to a casual fan and a diehard, I'm not going to go out of my way to see this game. For the second year in a row, there's not much buzz surrounding the New Mexico Bowl.

But the match up of Nevada's powerful offense and New Mexico's strong defense will be something to watch. Also, if you haven't seen Colin Kaepernick, he should be the next thing to catch the WAC by storm. Don't be surprised if Nevada makes some noise offensively in the WAC next year with this kid. His pass efficiency is through the roof. Kaepernick has looked a little raw at times this year, but the guy has a rocket arm and pinpoint accuracy. He's a kind of player you'll go out of your way to see.

Prediction

I'm going against common wisdom and I'm picking Nevada. The Wolfpack have the offensive balance that could upset the Lobo defense. Most people think that New Mexico can't lose at home, but they did so last year. I'll grant you that that was a different New Mexico team, but it can be done. However, I'm not very confident. Usually in these offense/defense battles, the defense wins. I'm taking Nevada though, 31-27 (5 confidence points).

Recap

Wow. I'm not sure I've ever seen an offense as ill-prepared to face another team than I have with this New Mexico Bowl. Nevada was close a few times, but they were too conservative with their play calling. From what I saw, the Wolf Pack had a handful of 15-20 yard gainers, but they were never able to sustain a drive. Congratulations to New Mexico's defense for shutting this powerful, impressive offense down. This was the Lobo's first bowl victory since the 1961 Aviation Bowl and we heard that non-stop in the 2003 Las Vegas Bowl, 2004 Emerald Bowl, and the 2006 New Mexico Bowl. Finally, the announcers will quit harping on that!

Background Info & History

Man, that thing looks sharp..........

Oh, forgive me, I'm still in the dark ages. I've got a dial-up Internet connection and no HDTV. I can't believe I don't have a freaking HD television yet. How can one enjoy football without HD? Anyway, Pioneer is actually Japanese although you probably can't tell that by the name. It used to be sponsored by EA Sports and Sega Sports before Pioneer gained the rights in 2003.

History shows the Las Vegas Bowl as an exception to the rule as far as newer bowl games are concerned. Unlike the Seattle Bowl or Fort Worth Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl has been a hit pitting the best of the MWC (beginning in 2006) against a middle-of-the-road Pac-10 team. In the past, there have been some pretty entertaining games such as the Utah/Fresno State one in 1999 where Utah won 17-16. If you recall, it's also the game where USC was defeated by Utah which now looks pretty insane. Wyoming also pulled off a shocker against UCLA because I remember I got totally burned on that. I had 28 (out of 28 at the time) on UCLA because I didn't even see how Wyoming could be in that game. That's a story for another day I assume.

UCLA Storyline

The current head coaching situation is swirling around the UCLA Bruins. This cyclone of distractions could do one of two things: Gear UCLA up to play or have them come out flat.

DeWayne Walker is the new head honcho--at least for now. The interim head coach is still a leading candidate for the job but Rick Neuheisel appears to be a valid candidate.

Let's go see how the season played out. In the preseason, UCLA was along with Kentucky, Illinois, Texas A&M, and USF, the media's common "sleeper". Some people were expecting UCLA to win the Pac-10 and, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I read Matt Hayes saying something to the extent of them looking like USC did before their run to the Orange Bowl in 2002. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's what I read.

Anyway, the Bruins looked like the juggernaut many expected them to be after crushing Stanford and beating a respectable BYU team. But things all went down from there for head coach, Karl Dorrell. Utah came from absolutely nowhere and slammed the Bruins to the turf, 44-6. That was one of the biggest head-scratchers of the season because UCLA came into that game looking awesome and Utah was 0-2 with losses to Oregon State and Air Force.

UCLA was going to be okay right? Sure, they beat up on Washington and Oregon State after that until they ran into Notre Dame. This 2007 UCLA team now has the dubious distinction of losing to the worst Notre Dame team ever, joining Duke and Stanford. Ouch.

And, believe it or not, this team still had a shot to win the Pac-10 during the last week of the season! Wow. Turns out they lost to USC pretty handily and Dorrell got the boot. Things appear to be going downhill for UCLA, but they'll get a shot to come back with a win against BYU tonight.

BYU Storyline

The Cougars could be the best non-BCS team in the nation.

The Cougars began the year with a hard-fought win against Arizona and a loss to UCLA. Then, in a classic shootout, Tulsa shockingly found a way to hang 55 points on this very good BYU defense.

Then, the whole season took a turn for the better. BYU is the hottest team in the nation besides maybe Georgia. The Cougars of Brigham Young have won 9 straight games including victories against Air Force, TCU, New Mexico, and Utah.

The offense is rolling right along. Right now, BYU is 15th in total offense and 10th in total defense. If these guys didn't lose to Tulsa, I would have no problem with them being in the BCS. They're that good.

Match ups of the Game

UCLA QBs vs. BYU Pass Defense-UCLA's injury-ridden season at the QB position may have had something to do with their 6-6 mediocrity and lack of consistency. Both Cowan and Olson will be healthy, it's just a matter of which one will take more snaps. BYU is 41st in the nation; they aren't really that great in the secondary. So, like some other match ups this bowl season, something has to give.

BYU O-line vs. UCLA Pass Rush-Say what you want about UCLA's pass defense--it's not good at all. But you have to give credit to the UCLA front 4. These guys can move and it's led by Bruce Davis. The Cougars O-line is 26th in sacks allowed. Whether the size and speed of UCLA's defensive front will be an issue for BYU's offensive line is yet to be seen.

Keep an Eye on...

Do you want to mess with that? I don't want to mess with that. I guess it goes back to Joey Porter's "dark alley" question. I'll take Bruce Davis over Jerramy Stevens or Joey Porter.

But let's go back to the actual football field. Davis is a monster and the main reason UCLA ranks 14th in sacks and 4th in tackles for loss.

Davis could be the biggest difference in this game because of his 9 sacks. Most teams when going up against UCLA will try to focus on him putting a TE or an extra blocker of some sort to keep him from getting to the QB. This allows extra opportunities to other UCLA defenders showing how important of a role Davis has.



Let's stick with the DEs while we're at it. UCLA may have Bruce Davis, but BYU has Jan Jorgensen.

Jorgensen has registered 11 sacks so far this season and he'll be an issue for the 103rd ranked pass protection otherwise known as UCLA's offensive line.

Only a sophomore, he's shown just how bright his future can be at BYU. UCLA's blocking problems are pretty severe and Jorgensen might exploit that.

Must-See-Ometer

The Must-See-Ometer for the Las Vegas Bowl reads a 6 out of 10. Part of the problem would be the fact that we've already seen this game. UCLA won and even though they are two different teams now then they were then, it's still a rematch and those are never fun.

Even with that said, the BYU pass offense will roll against the struggling pass defense of UCLA. Both offensive lines working the opposing defensive line will be fun to see as well. For a casual fan, they might check this game out, but there might not be a ton to get excited about. There is a little bit of retribution possibly with Ben Olson playing his former team.

Prediction

I like BYU. Not much of a surprise. BYU is a much hotter team than UCLA right now. The only thing that concerns me regarding BYU is their running game against UCLA. I don't think they're going to get it moving, but the passing game led by Max Hall will do the bulk of the offensive work. BYU's pressure on Cowan/Olson will be too much to handle. BYU wins, 33-20 (24 confidence points).

Recap

BYU was lucky to escape from that alive. They didn't seem very motivated and I've seen BYU play much better games. If I'm The Decider at UCLA, I would hire DeWayne Walker to be my head man. Last night was the first time I've seen UCLA as motived to win a football game since their furious comeback against Oregon State. I feel sympathetic towards UCLA because they did play their hearts out and were set up for a chip-shot of a FG and blew it. Well, that's college football for you.