Game Previews: 8/28

NOTE: Hey guys, I'm going to be gone most of today. Got some stuff to take care of, then it's off to Mt. Pleasant to watch Central Michigan (hopefully) stave off Eastern Illinois. Have a great opening day!

NOTE #2: Just so you know, I didn't watch any of these games besides the very ending of the Oregon State/Stanford matchup, so I'm going strictly off of box scores.





When: 7:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Is Ball State going to be the MAC superpower we all expect they will be? It'll be interesting and even though they open up the year against an FCS foe in Northeastern, it's not like Ball State doesn't have a few things to work on, especially defensively.

Northeastern Will Win Because...: WR Alex Broomfield will help out a shaky passing game and alleviate the loss of RB Maurice Murray. Broomfield is a solid athlete that should be a test to Ball State's D. Also, there has to be hope that the FCS' 71st ranked total defense will play the game of their lives to contain the Cardinal offense.

Ball State Will Win Because...: Talent? The Cardinals on offense are stacked with late NFL draft picks which should serve them well in this game against an overmatched Husky defense. Northeastern ranked 100th in pass efficiency defense at the FCS level and we all know about Nate Davis, Darius Hill, Dante Love, etc.

Keep an Eye on...: Nate Davis. Some people even think he could be the best QB in the country this season. I don't happen to think that, but it isn't a huge stretch to suggest so. Davis will have to open up with a solid performance against a weak Northeastern secondary to get off on the right foot, and he should.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Ball State wins in a rout. The offensive machine may be a little bit slow out of the gate, but once Brady Hoke's bunch goes up by about 30, he'll call off the starters and get his backups valuable experience. Give me BSU, 47-13.

Recap: Close on the prediction, but this was a blowout from the start. It came as no surprise that the Husky defense was just overmatched.




When: 7:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Not only will this be an intensely played and close game, but starting the season 1-0 is crucial for these evenly-matched teams. UTEP is trying to shake off yet another late-season collapse exiting the 2007 campaign and Buffalo is attempting to build upon the strides made last year. This should be the closest game of the opening night.

UTEP Will Win Because...: The passing game should exploit Buffalo's biggest weakness: Linebackers. The pass defense as a whole was decent for Buffalo, led by sophomore safety Devonte Shannon, but the Bulls are totally remaking the LB corps and UTEP should hit small passes up the middle with great frequency.

Buffalo Will Win Because: The rushing attack for the Bulls will overpower the Miner defensive front. UTEP ranked 104th against the running game a year ago and with James Starks in Buffalo's backfield, expect the Bulls to run, run, and run some more.

Keep an Eye on...: Trevor Vittatoe. How well he plays will be key to the game. He's coming off of a freshman campaign where he completed 55% of his passes and was 32nd in passing efficiency. Again, as a freshman.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I am so torn on this game. Personally, I think UTEP is a little bit better on paper, but the fact that Buffalo is at home throws a monkey wrench into the equation. My guess is Buffalo, but that could be my MAC-homerness showing through. The Bulls will manage the game by wearing out UTEP's defense on the ground. Neither defenses are all that great, so it should be a fun shootout to watch, if you can. Bulls take it, 39-35.

Recap: Maybe UTEP just isn't that great? I expected the Bulls to win, but a 42-17 thrashing was not exactly what I expected. The Bulls got it done with balance and racked up 484 yards of total offense.




When: 7:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Eastern Illinois is a solid FCS program that made the playoffs a year ago. Central Michigan on the other hand really struggled in every one of their non-conference games with the exception of Army. This could be closer than expected.

Eastern Illinois Will Win Because...: The dual-threat at RB of Travorus Bess and Ron Jordan. Central Michigan was sliced, gashed, lacerated, any other violent adjective you can think of through the air, but Eastern Illinois should get the ground game going. Statistically, Central wasn't bad against the run, but it's not a strong defensive front. EIU QB Bodie Reeder will get his yards through the air, it's how the ground game does that will determine how competitive the Panthers are in this game.

Central Michigan Will Win Because...: Offensive firepower. Central Michigan was one of the most potent non-BCS offenses in the country manned by Dan LeFevour. This is a team that averaged almost 35 points per game and Eastern Illinois ranked 59th in scoring defense.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Frank Zombo. Central Michigan of course will have to stop Eastern Illinois through the air every so often, but as long as they control the rushing attack of EIU, they should keep them out of the endzone enough to let LeFevour and the offense do its thing.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Central will play well enough for the win, but I almost half-expect them to lay an egg. While Eastern Illinois is no North Dakota State, that loss left a really, really sour taste in my Maroon and Gold mouth. I think it will be a sloppy game defensively, but the CMU offense will be too potent for an average defense like Eastern Illinois' to contain for too long. Give me the Chips, 52-28.

Recap: I was at the game, and it was obvious that the only reason the Chippewas only won this 31-12 was because of poor playcalling on Bob Spoo's part and offensive coordinator Roy Wittke's part. Eastern Illinois was carving up CMU's defense with the short passing game, but they insisted on running the football when the endeavor was pretty much failing miserably. I'm convinced that this would have been a much closer game had EIU used Bodie Reeder's passing skills more often. Other than that, I'm of the opinion that Central came out a bit cold, but they had the game in check since the first quarter. LeFevour didn't have one of his better nights and while it's the opening game, I was really expecting more of an offensive explosion for both teams.




When: 7:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: It's okay, you don't have to.

Indiana State Will Win Because...: Well, I guess because the Sycamores beat Eastern Michigan in 2001. New head coach Trent Miles has instilled some enthusiasm in the program. The only thing that Indiana State was good at statistically was in sacks allowed, ranking tied for 54th in the FCS.

Eastern Michigan Will Win Because...: They're a lot better, I guess? Indiana State has gone from being bad to one of the worst FCS programs in the country under former head coach Lou West and the team ranked 114th in scoring offense and 116th in total defense. Yikes.

Keep an Eye on...: Josh Hunt. The DT should get into the face of Calvin Schmidtke or Travis Johnson all day. Hunt hasn't really gotten the hype that Jason Jones did at DT, but he's almost as good of a player.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Eastern Michigan may struggle at first, but they'll pull away late for a blowout win. Even though all signs point to Schmidtke as the starter as long as he can keep his head straight, there's not too much to get excited about this season. The Sycamores are still really, really bad and Jeff Genyk will get Andy Schmitt rolling late. Eagles win, 43-10.

Recap: I underestimated how bad Indiana State would be. Eastern came out and everything clicked with a 52-0 victory.




When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN Plus

Why You Should Care: Was UConn for real last season? The Huskies caught a lot of breaks and if they're not careful, look out for Hofstra to catch them napping and make a game out of this.

Hofstra Will Win Because...: Bryan Savage at QB. Savage is a tough athlete who's fast enough to do his share of damage on the ground or through the air. The Pride can also play tough defense which was good enough for 15th in the FCS a year ago.

UConn Will Win Because...: Defense, defense, defense. The Huskies played some of the best in the country last season and it shouldn't be all that much different this go-around. They only surrendered 19 points per game last season.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Julius Williams. Hofstra was bad at protecting the mobile Savage a season ago and UConn has the athletes on the defensive front, Williams included, to wreak havoc in the Pride backfield.

And the Crystal Ball Says: UConn will win comfortably. Hofstra isn't a cupcake of an FCS school, but they aren't expected to do a whole lot of damage in Championship Subdivision play. The Husky offense won't move the football a lot, but the smothering UConn defense should limit the Pride offense easily. UConn wins, 34-13.

Recap: Pretty much what was expected out of this game. The Husky defense was way to strong to get shoved around and shame on me for predicting that Hofstra would score a touchdown! UConn won, 35-3.




When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN 360

Why You Should Care: Aren't you interested in seeing Paul Johnson's offense? It was probably the most hyped-about coaching change this side of Rich Rodriguez and Rick Neuheisel, but it could wind out being the best if the option offense works out like he hopes. Jacksonville State will be unleashing their weapon-via-transfer, Ryan Perrilloux.

Jacksonville State Will Win Because...: Lost in transition? It'll be interesting to see how up-to-speed Georgia Tech will be against the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State (that's in Alabama, folks). The run defense ranked 41st in the nation, so hopefully they can stand up to the option onslaught.

Georgia Tech Will Win Because...: They're a better all-around team, obviously. The option, while not intricate, is difficult to master, but whether or not Georgia Tech has it down to a tee is irrelevant. The defense should do the job, led by DT Vance Walker and DE Michael Johnson.

Keep an Eye on...: Ryan Perrilloux. The much-maligned former LSU QB will be making his debut and it'll be interesting to see how he performs. Obviously, he's not quite surrounded with the gobs of talent at LSU, so how much better he makes his teammates will be a big factor.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Jacksonville State is one of the favorites to win the Ohio Valley Conference, so while they're no slouch, they're not as good as the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has enough speed defensively to hold the Gamecocks at bay, even if the offense isn't firing on all cylinders. GT will win easily, 33-10.

Recap: Georgia Tech came out with their option offense guns ablazing, even scoring on a fumble on the one yard line. Ryan Perrilloux was shaky going 22-37 and tossing two picks.




When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU

Why You Should Care: This is absolutely huge for Miami U. The RedHawks have to get off to the right start against a BCS conference foe, and a win against Vanderbilt would give them the confidence they need to compete intraconference. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, needs this to have a prayer of going bowling.

Vanderbilt Will Win Because...: SEC Speed? Nah, but they have one of the better defensive backfields in the SEC. Miami will have to throw against Vanderbilt so they don't become one-dimensional, and that will be tough with D.J. Moore roaming in the secondary.

Miami OH Will Win Because...: Miami has quite the defense as well. The RedHawks boast one of the best LB corps in the MAC with Joey Hudson and Clayton Mullins. Vanderbilt will be without their starting tackles from a year ago, Chris Williams and Brian Stamper. Don't expect the QB situation to solve itself, either, in this game.

Keep an Eye on...: Chris Nickson, Mackenzi Adams, or Jared Funk. My 2-a-Days segment for Vandy predicted that Funk will become the starter at QB once all hope of making a bowl game is lost, but Bobby Johnson will probably try all of his options if nothing works at first. Vanderbilt is competent QB play away from winning this game, but that's a big question mark.

And the Crystal Ball Says: It will be a tight game and the best of the televised matchups, but Miami will pull it off in the end. It won't be a doozy if you like high-flying matchups with a lot of points, but it will be a defensive battle with Miami coming out on top with the more competent offense. RedHawks win with patience and fewer turnovers, 17-13.

Recap: This one really stunned me. I didn't expect Vanderbilt to score as much as they did offensively and Miami, at least from reading the message boards at Miami Hawk Talk, sounded like they slept walked through this game. It really is a shame because I refuse to believe that this team is as bad as the 34-13 score indicated.




When: 7:30 PM ET

Why You Should Care: Even though Eastern Kentucky isn't necessarily a cream puff, this game is all about how Cincinnati figures out their QB situation. Will Grutza be good enough to hold onto the job? How will Demetrius Jones perform? And will Chazz Anderson be the lightning that Kelly is looking for at that position?

EKU Will Win Because...: They might beat Cincinnati at their own game. The Bearcats were all about creating turnovers, and that's what the Colonels do best ranking 3rd at the FCS level. They don't have the athletes defensively to shut down Cincinnati and while the running game is solid, the Bearcat defensive front will do more than hold its own.

Cincinnati Will Win Because...: Offensive firepower. Maybe. First things first, find a QB who can manage the offense. The defense will be fine against Eastern Kentucky because EKU runs the football a lot better than they pass, which plays right to the strength of Cincinnati's defense.

Keep an Eye on...: Dustin Grutza. Grutza has to fill in the role of being a team leader that Ben Mauk once held, so it will be absolutely crucial for him to perform well in this game. Cincy can't win the Big East if they're playing QB Carousel.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Cincinnati. Yeah. Somewhat big, 44-16.

Recap: Basically what was expected. Cincy took the game 40-7 and Dustin Grutza played well enough for the Bearcats to feel confident at QB heading into the Oklahoma game.




When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN 360

Why You Should Care: When will the Hurricanes rise back to prominence? It could be this season, but they have to settle the QB conundrum. Robert Marve was suspended opening the door for Jacory Harris. We'll see how he does.

Charleston Southern Will Win Because...: It's really tough to make a case here. This isn't a good football team who had a 5-6 record playing in the Big South, an FCS mid-major conference. Not to mention three of those wins came against Johnson Smith, North Greenville, and Savannah State. Miami is, let's just say, a big step up from those teams that the Bucs beat a year ago.

Miami Will Win Because...: Based on sheer talent, they're a lot, lot better. Who cares if Jacory Harris is starting instead of Marve, it'll still be a blowout.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Eric Moncur. Moncur is going to go berserk against Charleston Southern's line. While they didn't perform collectively poor as a group, Moncur is the best DE they'll play by far this season.

And the Crystal Ball Says: It's too early to tell whether or not Miami will be back after one win against Charleston Southern, but they have to start the year off in a good way. Miami has been anemic offensively for the past few seasons, but they'll find their stride a little bit with a 47-10 victory.

Recap: I was surprised to see CFN nailed the score 52-7, but I guess it happens from time to time. There's not really a whole lot you can learn from this game with Charleston Southern being as bad as they are. But it's a start.




When: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN Plus

Why You Should Care: Without question, the biggest Sun Belt game of Week 1. Troy is rebuilding a little bit and Middle Tennessee is sorta in the same boat. The Blue Raiders have to replace a few key athletes while Troy has stockpiled enough talent to smooth out any transition year. This game could very well eliminate one of the teams from competing with Florida Atlantic for the conference title.

Troy Will Win Because...: Jamie Hampton looks like the guy at QB. Hampton just has to manage this team offensively, and if he can do that, look for DaJuan Harris to shoulder the load on the ground. Hampton is a rushing threat and Harris should chew away at the weakness of Middle Tennessee's defense. On top of all of this, Troy returns most of their offensive line pieces in tact while MTSU is a bit thin on the D-line.

MTSU Will Win Because...: Even if Troy has some nice, talented skill position guys, they are a bit raw. Even with the offensive line as good as it is, it'll be tough for them to star right off of the bat. Also, don't count out Dwight Dasher. Dasher is a born winner and should keep the Blue Raiders in a lot of games over the stretch of this season.

Keep an Eye on...: Boris Lee. Containing Desmond Gee and Dwight Dasher/Joe Craddock out of the backfield will be priority number one, so it only makes sense to keep an eye on the anchor of the Trojan defense.

And the Crystal Ball Says: This is another game I'm totally torn about. Straight up, I'm taking Troy even with the green skill players and strong offensive line, but Middle Tennessee is likely the third best team in the conference and they're at home. It's a tossup, but the offensive line and the Troy defense will squeak out an early road victory, 24-17.

Recap: Not as close as I thought it would, but it was somewhat competitive. It took until nearly the end for Troy to finally put the Blue Raiders away, but I was shocked at how much Dwight Dasher didn't play in this game.



When: 8:00 PM ET, FSN

Why You Should Care: I actually find Art Briles' debut with Baylor more interesting than any storyline Wake Forest has to offer. 2007 proved that the Deacons were no fluke so we know what to expect with them. Baylor is a big wildcard and the QB situation is absolutely up in the air right now.

Wake Forest Will Win Because...: The same reason this team always wins: Excellent execution, mistake-free football, and smart playcalling. It's been the formula since 2006 and it hasn't disappointed. Baylor gave up 37 points per game, so whatever Briles brings to the table offensively, it won't offset the Bear's bad defense.

Baylor Will Win Because...: Even though Wake is athletic in the secondary and they ranked highly in pass efficiency defense, it's not impossible to throw the football on the Demon Deacons. Whoever is at QB will do a good job of chucking the football and if the running game gets established, watch out! This could be closer than expected.

Keep an Eye on...: Alphonso Smith. Look for him to get a pick (or two) as Baylor's offense has been susceptible to turning the football over.

And the Crystal Ball Says: Baylor will keep it surprisingly close, mainly because Wake Forest isn't the kind of team built to blow teams out. By far the biggest win was by 27 against North Carolina, so this is a team that does enough to win and leaves it at that. Wake Forest will pound Baylor with a physical run game that will wear the Bears out while Riley Skinner completes a crushing TD pass early in the 4th quarter to shut the door. Wake wins, 36-21.

Recap: Ouch. 41-13? Baylor has some work to do.




When: 8:00 PM ET

Why You Should Care: If you're looking for the one game that will surprise the Average CFB Fan on opening day, this may be what you're looking for. The Jackrabbits may be freshly transitioned from Division II ball, but they're no scrubs by FCS measures. Even though Iowa State improved down the stretch, they did manage to get beat by Northern Iowa and Kent State at home, so if nothing else, it should develop into a scary game.

South Dakota State Will Win Because...: Iowa State is still in a bit of transition with some new faces on offense. In order for SDSU to pull off the upset, they have to do well against the run, something they weren't great at a year ago as they surrendered 176 yards on the ground per game. Even though the offense isn't fantastic, they're physical and they got the job done with Ryan Berry under center. This is a nice team with some momentum.

Iowa State Will Win Because...: All do respect to the Jackrabbits, but Iowa State has been recruiting at another level for the past few seasons. The Cyclones have a talented offensive line and three reliable backs in Alexander Robinson, J.J. Bass, and Jason Scales.

Keep an Eye on...: DE Eric Schroeder. He led the Jackrabbits in sacks a year ago and while he'll have to step it up against the run, getting into Phillip Bates and/or Austen Arnaud's face all day will be crucial.

And the Crystal Ball Says: While I have this eerie feeling in the pit of my gut that says Iowa State will sleepwalk through this, Michigan/App State style sleepwalking, I'm not ballsy enough to call the upset. You'd have to think that Iowa State's ground game would eventually wear out SDSU's defense late in the game, but it'll be closer than Gene Chizik would like it to be. Iowa State pulls away in the 4th quarter to win 34-17.

Recap: More of a blowout than I predicted, but Iowa State has made some noticeable strides. South Dakota State isn't great, but QB Ryan Berry's five interceptions helped seal the deal.



When: 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Why You Should Care: Is Steve Spurrier finally going to get this thing going? How far has Tom O'Brien come in his second year at NC State? A few good coaching-dramas going on at the respective schools, and there's some old-fashioned ACC-SEC bragging rights on the line as well. Should make for a competitive football game.

NC State Will Win Because...: They are stronger on the lines. At least the defensive line for NC State is a little more overpowering. You have to like the presence of Willie Young at DE and Alan Michael-Cash at DT. The ACC is known for its defense and while this was an average group a year ago, they should be better.

South Carolina Will Win Because...: More playmakers. NC State will have their issues on offense with Russell Wilson being named the starter, but the Gamecocks can break the game open with a solid rushing attack and a guy by the name of Kenny McKinley at WR. Advantage: South Carolina.

Keep an Eye on...: CB Jeremy Gray. While Spurrier will try to establish the run against the juicy NC State run defense, the Gamecocks will air it out once in a while to keep the Wolf Pack honest. Gray will be a big part in coverage trying to keep South Carolina's damage limited, especially while he's one-on-one with McKinley.

And the Crystal Ball Says: South Carolina in a tight, tight football game. Remember, this is another team that hasn't been flashy by any means during the Spurrier era and will sputter from time to time offensively. It will be a tussle between two defensive-minded football teams, so if you don't like points, this game is for you. NC State will give up too many yards on the ground to win it though, so give me South Carolina 23-14.

Recap: My God, that looked horrible. South Carolina pummeled NC State on their way to a 34-0 shutout victory. Maybe that bowl projection for NC State looks a bit foolish right now. I still happen to think that NC State can turn it around, there's 11 games left to go. Hopefully Russell Wilson will be okay after suffering a concussion. The Wolf Pack had 138 yards of total offense. Absolutely atrocious.




When: 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2

Why You Should Care: This really does have the potential to be a sneakily underrated game for the grand debut of the 2008 season. Oregon State is in a minor rebuilding mode, but they should make it out alive with the new faces. Jim Harbaugh still doesn't have Stanford where he'd like it, but the Cardinal made huge progress under year one and look to continue that success.

Oregon State Will Win Because...: Defense. And lots of it. Sure, the Beavers are filling in the holes on this side of the football, but the defensive line will retain a huge pass rush with Slade Norris and Victor Butler at DE. Stanford was really bad in pass protection so look for Oregon State to blitz heavy and get into the backfield with ease.

Stanford Will Win Because...: Even though Scott Shafer is gone to Michigan, it doesn't mean that Stanford will quit making plays in the backfield. Oregon State has their own offensive line problems and, worse, indecision at QB. Sean Canfield (backup at this point) and Lyle Moevao were incredibly inconsistent and turned the ball over at a terrible rate. Watch out for Clinton Snyder and Pat Maynor at LB to make plays in the backfield.

Keep an Eye on...: Sammie Stroughter. I'm sure we're all anxiously awaiting his return after sitting out most of 2007. Stanford has some major issues with their pass defense and while the game will be won or lost for both teams in the trenches, look for the Oregon State receivers to get open and often.

And the Crystal Ball Says: I desperately want to go upset here, but Stanford still has a little bit to go before they can consistently compete in Pac-10 play. Oregon State won't be all that bad as the hype surrounding their defense says they will and the QB situation should improve as the season moves on. The Beavers will play great defense while the offense is just better than Stanford's with more vertical threats. Oregon State wins, 35-20.

Recap: Man, I whiffed badly on this one. Should have known that Stanford's home field advantage would pay dividends. The back-breaker came in the 4th quarter where Lyle Moevao tossed a pick and Stanford returned it for a TD. Disappointing effort, but I suppose it may be expected with all of the new guys across the board.